The Angels' team ERA, 4.19, is 12th in baseball. They are fifth in on-base percentage, .346, and runs scored, 761.
Why do the Angels have the second-best record? Even their expected record (based on runs scored and runs allowed), while worse than their actual record, is third best.
Thomas Boswell credits manager Mike Scioscia's strategy of aggression on the basepaths. Boswell's argument isn't satisfying. The Angels are 18th--below the MLB median--in stolen base percentage (73%). They just run more, leading the majors in stolen bases and caught stealing alike. The Angels' stolen base percentage is low enough that, if conventional wisdom of statistics experts is right, running more often shouldn't much help, and if anything should hurt.
The only way to save the Scioscia strategy, as far as I see, is to argue for psychological effects. Constant baserunning keeps other teams on their toes all game long. Yet psychological effects haven't flummoxed opposing catchers, who throw out Angels' runners at above-average rates. In fact, considered in the abstract, psychological effects might just as well hurt the Angels because opposing outfielders will know from the crack of the bat to come up throwing.
Other ideas?
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