Pitching the playoffs

The Red Sox are in the playoffs. But the ALDS will be tough for Boston--maybe more than the ALCS. That's because they will face either the Angels or the Indians, who pack respective 1-2 punches of Lackey-Escobar and Sabathia-Carmona, either of which outshines Beckett-Schilling/Matsuzaka/Buchholz. Who pitches for Boston?

The length of the ALDS will be seven or eight days, depending on whether Boston wins the division and whether it gets the best record in the AL.

Here's how I'd slot the rotation for a seven-day series:

Game 1: Buchholz
Game 2: Beckett
[offday]
Game 3: Schilling
Game 4: Matsuzaka
[offday]
Game 5: Beckett

Buchholz starts first so Beckett can pitch on normal rest and Buchholz can move into the bullpen, able to go in long relief for Dice-K in case the Japanese wonder has another shitty start. In turn, Matsuzaka would be in the bullpen in game one in case Buchholz falters. Schilling and, yes, even Matsuzaka should be superior to whoever's starting against them. The smart money would have the Sox taking game one or two and both three and four, leaving a fresh Beckett to start the ALCS.

Here's my rotation for an eight-day series, which would happen if Boston got the best record and elected for eight days or if Boston finished in the wild card and played the best-record team that elected for eight days:

Game 1: Beckett
[offday]
Game 2: Schilling
[offday]
Game 3: Matsuzaka
Game 4: Beckett
[offday]
Game 5: Schilling

Francona will probably use just this formula, using Buchholz as the lights-out guy in the bullpen. That makes a lot of sense. Buchholz could be extremely valuable in the pen, and the three offdays mean he could be used in four of five games. Francona would manage to respect Matsuzaka while minimizing Matsuzaka's playing time, because Matsuzaka would never get enough rest to pitch out of the bullpen and Buchholz could do long relief in game three in case Matsuzaka stinks. The key assumptions in this formula are that Buccholz is a talented unknown, requiring flexibility, and that Schilling is on his game. Those are sound assumptions.

Here's a ballsy alternative:

Game 1: Beckett
[offday]
Game 2: Buchholz
[offday]
Game 3: Schilling
Game 4: Beckett
[offday]
Game 5: Buchholz (or Matsuzaka)

As I said, ballsy--intending to start Buchholz twice, including in game five. Here's why it works: you still get Beckett twice, and if Buchholz falters in his game-two start, you know about it early and yank him for game five. Matsuzaka goes to the bullpen for games one and two. If Buccholz blows game one, Matsuzaka rests in games three and four and starts game five. Smart money has the Sox winning behind Schilling and taking two of four Beckett-Buchholz starts--but it's close. The key assumptions in this formula are that Buccholz is awesome and ready for prime-time, that Matsuzaka is comfortable with pitching out of the bullpen, and that Schilling isn't great. Problems are, Schilling has pitched great lately, and god knows if Dice-K can come from the pen. But uber-confidence in Buccholz, if justified, could overcome those problems, especially if the Sox feel they need something better than a 1-2 of Beckett-Schilling and are willing to gamble.

The big question is whether the Sox, if they finish with the best record in the AL, should choose a seven- or eight-day series. Francona would be a fool not to choose seven. The Sox don't want to face the Lackey-Escobar or Sabathia-Carmona pairs twice; although not probable, they could easily win three of four games. Despite the Sox strengthening their bullpen with Buccholz or Matsuzaka in the eight-day series, the Sox bullpen is already stronger than the Angels' or the Indians' and will benefit from gaining Tim Wakefield and Jon Lester in either scenario.

I'll leave the difficult task of Yankees' rotation to Blackadder, though he may wish to wait until we get a better read on Mussina, Kennedy and even Clemens. Personally, I'd bench Wang in favor of starting Kyle Farnsworth--not to mention bringing A-Rod to play catcher and moving Posada to center field.