So I Guess This Means the Sox Should DFA Manny...

When Jack and I (ok, it was mainly Jack) created Primarily Baseball a few months ago, the last thing I ever suspected is that we would evolve into a forum for critiquing Baseball Prospectus. My first post, in fact, relied almost entirely on work done at Baseball Prospectus. Joe Sheehan is probably my favorite baseball columnist, Nate Silver is one of the smartest sabermetricians I know of working today, and most of the other writers are very good too.

That said, this has to be the dumbest fucking thing ever written.

(Password necessary, I'm afraid.)

For those who can't access the article--or choose not to suffer Huckaby's meandering verbiage-- the basic point is that replacement level, as traditionally understood, has been set much too low by baseball analysts, at least for players on the "left end" of the defensive spectrum (i.e. 1B/DH's and bad fielding corner outfielders). Replacement level is supposed to be the level of a typical AAA player or backup, i.e. the sort of player that can be easily acquired for little to no cost. The notion plays a large value in many value metrics, which are built around the assumption that it is the contributions a player makes above what a replacement level player would have done that constitute that players value to his team. Typically, replacement level is set to be around 75-80% of league average performance.

Now, the thesis that replacement level performance is actually higher than sabermetricians have thus far assumed is not, on the face of it, an absurd claim. It may even be true. However, Huckaby gives absolutely support to this thesis. His argument, so far as I can tell, is the following: Jack Cust was a replacement level player last year, in the sense that the A's acquired him from the Padres AAA affiliate after injuries had decimated their roster. Thus, we can use Cust as a reasonable benchmark for replacement level. Cust, in case you forgot, immediately started raking upon joining the A's: he hit 6 home runs in his first 7 games, including a walk off blast off one Joe Borowski. His numbers regressed as the year wore on, but Cust still finished the year with an extremely impressive .256/.408/.504 line (as that suggests, he was an amazing Three True Outcomes hitter; over 58% of his plate appearances resulted in a walk, a strikeout or a home run.) Using Cust as the definition of replacement level, Huckaby posts a long list of big name players--including Mike "MVP" Lowell--who were below replacement level by this definition.

The problem with this argument seems blindingly obvious: just because Cust happened to be freely available talent--a term sometimes, perhaps incorrectly, considered synonymous with replacement level--does not imply that the calibre of his performance was somehow replacement level. Suggesting as much makes as much sense as saying that that Mike Piazza represents "63'rd draft round talent." Jack Cust drastically outperformed general expectations last year.

Amazingly, in his subsequent chat, Huckaby denies that Cust's performance last year was really all that surprising, saying "And did Cust *really* exceed reasonable expectations by all that much? I don't think so." Um, well, I can't say I remember exactly what people's expectations were, but I am pretty damn sure they were a hell of a lot lower. Look at it this way: Cust's Equivalent Average--one of BP's stats for evaluating general offensive perfomance--was seventh in the American League, just behind Jim Thome and ahead of Vlad Guerrero (Thome and Guerrero have better slash stats on the surface, but they both played in much better hitters parks than Cust). Guerrero and Thome, in case any one forgot, are Hall of Fame calibre hitters who had terrific years. Does anyone think that, if the expectations were that Cust would be anywhere close to that level, he would have begun the year rotting in AAA? Don't you think that the Padres--who are, I might add, one of the more sabermetrically astute franchises in baseball--would have promoted him if they thought he would be a better hitter than Vlad fucking god damn Guerrero? Hell, there is no way Billy Beane thought he was going be that good; if he did, why did he bother signing a 38 year old Mike Piazza in the off-season for vastly more money than Cust would receive despite the fact that Piazza hasn't been the hitter Cust was this year since 2002?

Cust was a desperation move on Beane's part that payed off big time. One could argue, of course, that Cust's stellar minor league numbers merited some team giving him a major league shot. But suggesting that Beane thought he was going to receive the quality of production that Cust offered--and, implicitly, that there are numerous minor leaguers out there who could provide something comparable to Cust's 2007 performance--is batshit insane.

That was way too much time to make a really obvious point.

Before You Attack Me, Know That Jesus Told Me To Post This

Excessive Google searches capped by bold inferences indicate that it's been an offseason of change for Big Papi. David Ortiz is now white, balding, a tremendous fan of Jesus Christ, and a deliciously awkward writer.

About David Ortiz Ministries: " . . . In conclusion, having traveled throughout Europe, the Middle East, the Caribbean, the Continental United States and Latin America, David Ortiz is, without doubt, one of our most cherished, talented and theologically prepared Hispanic assets."

As the Red Sox slugger embarks on his new journey, Primarily Baseball extends its best wishes to David and his familial assets.

Condemning human nature

It doesn't make much sense to condemn human nature. It is, at least, unconstructive. But it is what some critics of steroid use in baseball are doing.

From the Mitchell Report, we know, broadly, what we already knew and what perspicacious observers foresaw all along. In a competitive sport in which super-excellence was rewarded with enormous money and fame and in which there was almost no enforcement of a legal and baseball-wide ban on a means of improving performance, a good number of players used the nominally forbidden means.

Some of the alleged users were superstars pursuing an even greater greatness. Others were replacement-level players struggling to stay in the major leagues. Many players, probably a substantial majority, did not use steroids.

Baseball's steroid scandal simply affirms the premise of the American government's design. Most people aren't angels. They tend to pursue their own interests. But they're not generally evil, either. By aligning the self-interests they will perceive with the collective interests of society, institutions--constraints a group of people imposes on its members--may curb undesirable behavior and allow individuals to interact on fair terms.

Major League Baseball and law enforcement should enforce their policies forbidding the use of steroids and other harmful performance-enhancing substances. Those policies are, in my view, justified. The players and their union deserve blame for long opposing testing. If players thought it was right to juice up, the more honest position would have been to advocate overturning baseball's and legislators' ban on steroids--a position, of course, that would have been untenable. And the individual players who used steroids and other banned drugs deserve moral blame. After all, most of their peers, facing the same pressures, probably stayed clean.

While deserving our blame, the cheaters also deserve our empathy. When cheating seemed likely to bring large rewards at little cost, many people cheated. We shouldn't be shocked. We shouldn't even be surprised.

Red Sox to be undefeated in 2008

Eric Gagne has declined the Red Sox arbitration offer. He is rumored to be in discussions with the Brewers, which is not the Red Sox. If the Brewers don't sign him, he is rumored to be likely to sign with one of 28 teams, none of which is the Red Sox.

In other words, the Red Sox have gained more than in any possible deal for Johan Santana.

(Also noteworthy is the way MLB.com lends credibility to the Gagne-to-Brewers rumors: by citing "multiple Internet reports." Perhaps those reports are credible, but on its face, that's about as high a standard as "according to a thought that occurred to me while I was talking a shit.")

Fucking Will Carroll

Fucking Will Carroll.

On Tuesday he reported: "Johan Santana to the Red Sox is all but done. Jon Lester, a center fielder, Justin Masterson and Ryan Kalish are the package. More details now."

1. A center fielder? You tricky bitch. Is it Crisp or Ellsbury? Do you know or not know? Use parallel structure or explain the deviation, motherfucker.

2. "More details now" is already wrong the moment anyone reads it.

3. And Carroll's next post didn't come until Wednesday, when he reported that medical issues were holding up the deal. Cancer, Carroll speculated in a sentence reeking of bullshit, was "not likely the issue here; the Sox, with their connections to The Jimmy Fund, have access to some of the best oncologists in the world." Will Carroll did not elaborate on when he became Baseball Prospectus writer by day and Jon Lester's doctor by night, along with when the cure for cancer was developed but kept secret to everyone but Jimmy Fund-affiliated doctors, the Red Sox, Jon Lester, and Will Carroll.

So, no Santana yet, but sports reporters enjoy the power trip.

The Worst Thing Ever Written, Ever

From--you guessed it--Curt Schilling's 38pitches.com:

In 1997 when I gave my life to Christ a pretty cool thing happened. I lost the ability to hate anything or anyone. I’ve gotten mad, said stupid and bad things, but I truly don’t hate anyone or anything. Hating takes way too much energy and effort. There’s way too much to do and experience in life to waste time hating so I just don’t.

I could have put the quote in context, but that wouldn't have made it any less fucking god damn awful.

Surprising / Not Surprising

Today's Surprising / Not Surprising derives from the Boston Globe.

Surprising:

Pedroia led the league [in 2007] in something called BPS on OutZ, which translates to batting average plus slugging percentage on pitches outside the strike zone. Pedroia was listed at .664, just ahead of notorious bad-ball hitter Vladi Guerrero of the Angels (.662). Ramirez was second-worst in the league in the same category at .189.

The minuscule Pedroia hits outside pitches even better than Vlad? Surprising. Manny, one of the best hitters to play the game, and whom my eyes seem to remember landing a lot of hits on bad pitches, was awful outside the strike zone? Double surprising.

Not surprising:

Pedroia also had the second-lowest strikeout-per-plate-appearance average (.072), a category in which Varitek ranked fifth-highest (.236).

Tek strikes out more than Manny trying to pick up women outside a Greenpeace convention. Definitely not surprising.

You Don't Say

Amidst the hoopla over the new Tampa Bay uniforms, Rays adviser and crime dog Fred McGriff pointed out the obvious:

"I think these are great for a change, but the players still have to go out and play the game."

Clearly, McGriff overlooked that the new unis will bring enduring and all-powerful Momentum.

Schilling Says Goodbye

Wonder how those Curt Schilling “goodbye” letters to all his teammates read? Primarily Baseball doesn’t, because it has falsified one. Let’s have a look:

Dear Hidecki Okijima,

I wanted to take this opportunity to say what I fear might be goodbye. Me and my wife Shonda have had a marvelous time playing for the Boston Red Sox, and getting to know you in particular. As I face the prospect of free agency, I wanted to send our regards, and possible heartfelt goodbye, to both you and Mrs. Matsuzaka.

Hidiki, remember all the glories we shared together? I remember coaching you, in spring training, to throw on the corners rather than down the middle. That greatness continued right up to the World Series, where I dubbed your and Papelbon’s combined shutdown relief of my strong outing as the “Papijima” or “Okibon” show! I combined your last names!

Times like those will forever live in the heart of me and my wife Shonda, and our several kids. They sometimes make me forget that you ever bombed Pearl Harbor. Personally, I think people should let the past be the past.

I’ll be sure to give you a ring if I am ever in China. That said, I hope this is not goodbye. Daisuke, if my hopes come true, I will look forward to being your teammate, friend, and mentor next year again.

Warmest regards,
Curt & Shonda Schilling

The Mud Hens Strike Back

If only Sterling and Waldman could opt-out of their contracts. Or lives. Whatever relieves my ears of their daily impression, What An Orgasm Stretched Out Over Three Hours And Rendered As Baseball Announcing Sounds Like.

Point is, the opt-out is my new favorite tool. Through it, A-Rod has managed to unite Sox fans and Yankees fans in hatred of himself. And anyone but Scott Boras should find this stunt pretty awesome.