Primarily Baseball

This seems Untrue

2010-06-02T14:08:00.001-04:00

Per BBREF:

John Kruk: 170 pounds

David Eckstein: 175 pounds

Hat tip Dan Szymborski

Sportswriters with too much something on their hands

2010-05-10T00:32:00.001-04:00

"Romulo Sanchez sure was dirty..."

- Peter Abraham, knowing exactly what he's doing.

Boston sends its best wishes to Heidi Watney for a full and fast recovery

2010-04-22T15:33:00.010-04:00

The first comments on the Boston Globe's story about Heidi Watney's concussion-induced absence from NESN:

-We removed nuzzy's comment.
-We removed corkey's comment.
-We removed mrscoota's comment.
-We removed thommy's comment.

But we can imagine.

At least Mike Lowell's bat awaits her return, eagerly.

Update: The Globe, apparently discovering that its readers behave as if from Boston, has disabled the ability to comment on the Watney piece.

Dexter finale: just so I can say I called it

2009-12-13T16:18:00.004-05:00

I'm betting the central element of Dexter's fourth season finale will be Trinity capturing Harrison and Harrison being reborn in a pool of blood, much like Dexter was. Dexter will kill Trinity and save Harrison's life, but in future seasons he'll have to raise a son with dark urges -- forcing Dexter to decide how far he accepts and rejects Harry's upbringing of him.

Come on, that's a good ending even if the prediction proves wrong.

Posted without Comment

2009-10-31T15:05:00.001-04:00

This is probably false, but still.

Comment on MGL on Bunts

2009-10-27T15:56:00.003-04:00

I planned on posting his on The Book Blog, but sadly it doesn't seem to want to take it. It is a comment on this, from a slightly more mathematical perspective. I'm not sure how much reader('s) of this basically dormant blog will enjoy it, but it seems like a reasonable place to put it. What follows is the comment.

This is very good, although I am not sure I agree with some of the details. I've been grading a lot of freshman calculus exams lately, so apologies in advance for this little model, which is obviously heavily inspired by MGL's discussion.

We suppose both managers behave optimally. Let t ranging from 0 to 1 be the possible positions the infielders can play, so t=0 means that the infielders are playing as far in as possible, and t=1 means that they are playing as deep as possible (or as deep as realistically possible, since I guess they could play as deep as the fences!) We assume for simplicity that there is only one free parameter in terms of how "deep" the defense can play, while of course there are many in reality.

For a given hitter, in a given game state, with a given defense, we have the functions b(t) and h(t), where b(t) is the expected value of the bunt with the defense playing position t and h(t) the expected value of hitting away. We assume that b(t) is increasing, h(t) is decreasing, h(0) > b(0) (so hitting is preferred to bunting with the defense playing in) and b(1) > h(1). At the Nash equilibrium, the defense will play some position t_0 between zero and 1 and the offense will bunt some fraction 0 < c < 1.

t_0 is easy to find, as MGL indicates. Namely, our assumptions about h(t) and b(t) guarantee that there is a unique point x between 0 and 1 where h(x) = b(x). MGL's argument in the link shows that if the defense is playing any position t' not equal to x, it cannot be in a Nash equilibrium (the offense would have to bunt or hit 100% of the time, and the defense could then improve by changing their position.) Of course, if the hitter is a good bunter then b(t) is bigger, so x is closer to 0, while if he is a poor bunter or a good hitter x is closer to 1, all of which obviously makes intuitive sense.

Now, what should the batter do? He bunts some fraction c of the time, and no matter what of c he picks the total value of his PA is c*b(x)+(1-c)*h(x)=(c+1-c)*b(x)=b(x) since b(x)=h(x). However, there is still a constraint: for the optimal value c, the function f(t) = c*b(t) + (1-c)*h(t) (which is the value of the PA as a function of t if the batter bunts with probability c) must have a local maximum at t=x. Otherwise, by either moving in or out, the defense can decrease the value of the PA, which contradicts the Nash equilibrium assumption.

So we must have c*b(t) + (1-c)*h(t) with a local max at t=x. From freshman calculus, we know that a necessary condition for a local max is that the derivative vanishes at that point. So

0 = f'(x) = c*b'(x)+(1-c)*h'(x)

Which gives

c = - h'(x)/(b'(x)-h'(x))

Our assumptions about b(t) and h(t) guarantee that this is always strictly between 0 and 1, which is obviously good.

Note, though, and this is the key point, that the optimal ratio is independent of how good a bunter the batter is! All that the matter is the LOCAL behavior of the two functions at the indifference point.

For instance, suppose ARod is a bad bunter and a good hitter, so the defense plays him very far back, say at .9. But at .9, it may well be the case that b'(.9) >> h'(.9), or in other words, that the marginal improvement in ARod's bunting value when the defense steps back is much bigger than the corresponding marginal decrease in his hitting ability. In this case, ARod should be bunting most of the time. Similarly, you can be a very good bunter and poor hitter, but still be advised to swing away when the defense is playing you optimally. So I don't think I agree with MGL's recommendations about how much different players should bunt

This explains why the offensive manager's job is much harder the the defensive manager's. The defense only has to know when the two functions are roughly equal, which is something that can be discovered implicitly through trial and error. It is very hard, however, to get a sense of the derivatives of these functions through trial and error. So it makes a lot of sense that offensive manager's make more bunting mistakes than defensive ones.

Does this make sense? Is there some other parameter that people think should be included in this ridiculously simple model?

A perfect game

2009-07-11T02:27:00.002-04:00

Jonathan Sanchez is getting gypped. Officially, he threw a no-hitter Friday. But because he allowed no walks and hit no batters, only third baseman Juan Uribe's fielding error separated Sanchez from a perfect game -- a far rarer and more prestigious feat than a no-no. Why should Sanchez be punished because his teammate choked? Not only was Sanchez's performance tantamount to a perfect game, but it was actually a bit better than perfect, because he had to record an extra out to make up for Uribe's screw up. The stat community should from now on determine perfect games independently of errors.

Bonzai

2009-05-27T22:35:00.006-04:00

First Pearl Harbor. Now Dice-K.

How much bombing from Japan is this country going to take?

Truly, if the CIA had forced senior al Qaeda detainees to watch Daisuke Matsuzaka throw 100+ pitches in 5 innings, allowing 12 baserunners, serving up 690 wild pitches, all while wiggling his ass like an earthworm on a fish hook, Osama would have been toast on 9/12.

But to the detainees, it would have felt like forever.

Travesty

2009-05-21T03:34:00.004-04:00

You're a baseball announcer. How do you ruin back-to-back-to-back home runs? Right here. It comes naturally if you're John Asshat Sterling.

No amount of waterboarding could ever suffice to punish the use of the term "Swish-a-licious." But by golly we should try.

Naturally

2009-05-17T00:07:00.002-04:00

Yesterday Bartolo Colon left the game after five innings with an upset stomach.

Time travel

2009-04-02T01:51:00.004-04:00

Mozart, 1782: "Lick my ass nicely, lick it nice and clean, nice and clean, lick my ass."

Shaq, 2008: "Kobe, ni****, tell me how my ass taste."

Frankly, Shaq's is catchier.

Schilling Lumbers Off Into the Sunset

2009-03-23T20:40:00.009-04:00

Curt Schilling's retirement announcement, with commentary from the very inner conscience of Curt Schilling:

“Turn out the lights, the party’s over”

Rather than simply state I am retiring, I will build this up like a prick. Because I am a self-indulgent prick.

I used to wait with bated breath for Don Meredith to start singing that on “Monday Night Football.” Normally, it was sweet music if the Steelers were playing.

I am a self-indulgent prick.

If I could get him to sing it again, I would. This party has officially ended. After being blessed to experience 23 years of playing professional baseball in front of the world’s best fans in so many different places, it is with zero regrets that I am making my retirement official.

I am a self-indulgent prick.

To say I’ve been blessed would be like calling Refrigerator Perry “a bit overweight.”

It would be like calling Curt Schilling "a bit overweight."

[...]Four World Series, three World Championships. That there are men with plaques in Cooperstown who never experienced one — and I was able to be on three teams over seven years that won it all — is another “beyond my wildest dreams” set of memories I’ll take with me.

I, one pitcher, Curt Schilling, believe I am solely responsible for the championships of all three teams.

The game always gave me far more than I ever gave it. All of those things, every single one of those memories is enveloped with fan sights and sounds for me. Without the fans, they would still be great memories, but none would be enduring and unforgettable because they infused the energy, rage, passion and “feel” of all of those times.

You can tell I'm disingenuous here, because this sentence makes absolutely no fucking sense at all, even for me: "Without the fans, they would still be great memories, but none [fans? memories? experiences?] would be enduring and unforgettable because they [fans? memories? donuts?] infused the energy, rage, passion and “feel” of all of those [wtf????] times." Totally nailed it.

I am and always will be more grateful than any of you could ever possibly know.

I am a sanctimonious prick.

I want to offer two special thank you’s.

To my Lord and Savior Jesus Christ for granting me the ability to step between the lines for 23 years and compete against the best players in the world.

Christ died for most people's sins. But because I have no sins, he died so I could play ball. And yes, my sanctimonious prickness is coming across loud and clear.

To my wife Shonda

I married a hatchback car.

and my 4 children, Gehrig, Gabriella, Grant and Garrison for sacrificing their lives and allowing baseball to be mine while I played. Without their unquestioned support I would not have been able to do what I did, or enjoy the life, and I am hopefully going to live long enough to repay them as much as a Father and Husband can.

See how I know the quantity and names of my children! First letter is always G, that's how I remember. But perhaps I was too forthcoming in acknowledging that my kids "sacrificed their lives" and that I never questioned their support.

Thank you and God Bless
Curt Schilling

Totally nailed it.

Yuuuuuckkk

2009-03-22T00:17:00.006-04:00

Kevin Youkilis: Greek god of having the fucking ugliest headshot ever.

I Am Mankiw, I Am Douche

2009-02-17T20:49:00.005-05:00

Greg Mankiw writes (translated from the Bullshit):

"Recently I found myself desiring to highlight how important I am. I noticed people were talking about how this other professor disclaimed any interest in debating the stimulus, saying: 'all I know on this issue I got from Greg Mankiw's blog.' Gosh! Look how important I am! So I contrived a post that speculated the professor was being tongue in cheek -- fanciful of me, because hey, if I were someone else, I'd parrot me -- in order to draw further attention to my own large, throbbing intellect. It's rock hard, my intellect."

Pussy of the Day

2009-02-09T16:07:00.004-05:00

Is Alex Rodriguez, for confining himself to a mea culpa, for not going after the player's union and the leakers, for not offering Peter Gammons to feel his testicles.

Updike

2009-01-27T19:11:00.003-05:00

I cannot call myself an Updike fan, having read nothing of his other than a scattered few articles. What I can say is that he wrote beautifully about baseball; this is the article that has been getting a lot of play today. I particularly like this part:

"Baseball is a game of the long season, of relentless and gradual averaging-out. Irrelevance—since the reference point of most individual games is remote and statistical—always threatens its interest, which can be maintained not by the occasional heroics that sportswriters feed upon but by players who always care; who care, that is to say, about themselves and their art. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, he is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money."

I also could not help but notice his mention of attending school "near Boston". I suppose it should count as little surprise to see this particular prevalent instance of Harvadian false modesty should be so old, but it was nevertheless quite amusing.

I'd Like To Thank Truth, Beauty, Jack Bauer

2008-12-30T15:48:00.005-05:00

The second annual

Primarily Baseball

award for

Excellence in Sportswriting Excellence

for the pursuit and achievement of excellence in sportswriting excellence

in the year of our Fucking God Damn Lord 2008

goes to Primarily Baseball.

This site, in its first full year of existence, brought trenchant analysis and unparalleled wit to baseball fans the world over. It gave no quarter to irrationality, intellectual dishonesty, and poor taste, and has them on the run, everywhere. It made the surge work and Sarah Palin lose. It kept the gravitational constants constant, so that mankind could live. Thank you, Primarily Baseball. Because if he can claim to have liberated 50 million people, you can claim them all.

A Christmas Coincidence

2008-12-25T16:36:00.005-05:00

From Roch Kubatko:

"If anyone has taken the tour of Camden Yards, you've heard the story from the press box about Rosenthal's laptop being destroyed by a Cal Ripken foul ball. Rosenthal had written a column the night before suggesting that Ripken end The Streak. The screaming line drive that sent his laptop crashing to the floor was a delicious irony . . . . Ripken had no idea what happened until after the game, when former PR director John Maroon rushed to his locker with the news. Ripken's response went something like this: 'Cool.'"

A little math goes a long way

2008-12-05T02:21:00.002-05:00

Over here, Colin Wyers, who is generally a smart guy, studies whether a run saved is just as valuable as a run scored. He takes it to be an implication of the Pythagorean winning percentage formula (Win% = (RS^2/(RS^2+RA^2)) that this is indeed the case. However, looking at teams with matched run differentials but widely differing total runs (so, for instance, a team with RS/RA allowed of 900/800 gets matched with a 750/650) he finds that the lower scoring teams do slightly, but statistically significantly better. He takes this to imply some slight deficiency in the Pythagorean formula.

The problem is that he is completely wrong in his interpretation of the Pythagorean formula. In fact, as I showed in one of my first posts here, according to the Pythagorean formula a run saved is more valuable when the team is an above average team, and a run scored more valuable when it is below average. Thus, if there are more teams above .500 in his sample than below--which, if you look at the article, is indeed the case--the Pythagorean formula would predict that that the run saved is better than the run scored. In other words, completely contrary to the article's claim, the Pythagorean formula correctly predicts the data!

To be fair, Colin does later present some additional evidence that Pythagorean estimators are less accurate for the low scoring teams. That, however, does not make up for the earlier error.

Dog Puppet Is Superior To Ralph Nader

2008-11-20T22:59:00.002-05:00

Highly superior.

When You Lie

2008-11-16T21:37:00.001-05:00

It's sometimes better not to be high:

"But on the way to the exam, Ramirez, according to sources, couldn't remember which knee was sore. So the Red Sox had both of his knees examined. The MRIs revealed no damage in either."

TekWatch: Oh No You Didn't

2008-11-09T00:30:00.003-05:00

Regarding Red Sox contract negotiations with Jason Varitek:

"Epstein and Scott Boras are far apart on Jason Varitek's monetary value. Boras is looking for a Jorge Posada-type deal (4 years, $52 million). The Sox are . . . "

. . . wondering whether Scott Boras is out of his fucking mind. A Jorge Posada-type deal? Not even Jorge Posada is worth that money. Varitek will be lucky to get 2 years, $16 million, in my view. Well, he would be. Because even to enter negotiations peddling such an insane fantasy is an insult to Theo Epstein, the Red Sox organization, Red Sox nation, unborn future fans, freedom, rationality, and global fucking god damn justice.

Joe the Fucker

2008-10-30T20:44:00.005-04:00

No one serious can say it, so I will: Joe the Plumber is a fucking piece of shit.

First he said Barack Obama tap danced "almost as good as Sammy Davis Jr." Today he said: "Vote for a real American, John McCain."

Jack the Blogger has a message for you, Joe, from one real American to another: your asscrack is your most appealing feature. Stick to plumbing.

TekWatch: Working Class Hero Scott Boras Speaks Out

2008-10-23T14:51:00.008-04:00

Jason Varitek's agent Scott Boras has begun to lay out the case that Tek is a valuable catcher. Pull up a chair, preferably with a solid back, and feel the bullshit seep into your pores:

"If you think about his physical conditioning, he's got many more years to play in this game," Boras said. "When he's out there, this club is decisively different. You're really talking about a guy that is inherently valuable. In this day and time, what is a player like that worth?"

Let's take these claims in turn.

If you think about his physical conditioning, he's got many more years to play in this game.

If I think about Curt Schilling's or Cecil Fielder's physical conditioning, those players should never have played the game. If I think about Barry Bonds's physical conditioning, Bonds should be DH'ing right now in the World Series. If, however, I think about actual baseball ability -- the, you know, important thing -- Jason Varitek's not looking so hot. After posting OPS+ numbers around 120 from 2003 to 2005, Tek sunk to 83 in 2006, 103 in 2007, and a miserable 73 this year, at age 36. That's good evidence he's on a serious and irreversable decline.

When he's out there, this club is decisively different.

Unprovable, but here's the evidence the Globe presented: "Over the past three seasons, including playoffs, the Red Sox have a .596 winning percentage in games in which Varitek has appeared and a .508 winning percentage when he did not. This season, the Red Sox went 78-53 with him in the regular season, 17-14 without him." Tek doesn't catch Tim Wakefield, who is the fourth or fifth starter on the Sox. And the catcher who replaces Tek is the backup, who ought to be worse than the alternative everyday player a team could get on the market. Demonstrated Tek effect: 0.

You're really talking about a guy that is inherently valuable.

Unclear what Boras has in mind that's not completely trivial. Jason Varitek, by virtue of being human, is endowed with instrinsic value? Maybe, but you'd have to square his entitlement to human rights with his lone hit in the ALCS, or his frequent swinging strikeouts in which bat and ball are separated by enough space to fit families of cattle from the Argentine pampas.

In this day and time, what is a player like that worth?

Put it this way: I'd start auctioning Tek's beard-clippings on eBay.

Sums up the election

2008-10-21T13:16:00.002-04:00

A squabble about World Series loyalty sums up the presidential election. Obama acts perfectly reasonably and with a sense of proportion; McCain distorts Obama's position and reveals his own narrowmindedness; sensible people roll eyes.

Says McCain: “It’s pretty simple really. When [Obama's] campaigning in Philadelphia, he roots for the Phillies, and when he’s campaigning in Tampa Bay, he shows love to the Rays. It’s kind of like the way he campaigns on tax cuts, but then votes for tax increases after he’s elected."

Problems:

1. Obama said he's rooting for the Phillies and not the Rays, which eliminated his hometown White Sox. He just expressed appreciation for the Rays at a rally with several Rays players. He also made light of the fact that baseball is just a game.

2. It's kind of invalid to cite events that might happen in the future as though they've happened already.

Is Hank Steinbrenner Ever Wrong?

2008-09-24T20:19:00.003-04:00

Not yet. He backed the acquisition of Santana, only to lose out to the "cooler heads" of Cashman and Hal. Now he writes that the multi-division setup isn't fair because bad teams go to the playoffs and good teams don't. He is, as always, transparently self-serving. But he is, as what is looking more and more like always, absolutely right.

Little Stein writes:

The biggest problem is the divisional setup in Major League Baseball. I didn't like it in the 1970s, and I hate it now. Baseball went to a multi-division setup to create more races, rivalries and excitement. But it isn't fair.

You see it this season, with plenty of people in the media pointing out that Joe Torre and the Dodgers are going to the playoffs while we're not. This is by no means a knock on Torre -- let me make that clear -- but look at the division they're in. If L.A. were in the AL East, it wouldn't be in the playoff discussion. The AL East is never weak.

St. Louis winning the World Series -- that was ridiculous. The Cardinals won their division with 83 wins -- two fewer than the Phillies, who missed the postseason. People will say the Cardinals were the best team because they won the World Series. Well, no, they weren't. They just got hot at the right time. They didn't even belong in the playoffs. And neither does a team from the NL West this season.

He also calls revenue sharing a "socialist system" that's un-American. Hank for President? How about Hank for King.

A Schilling divided against itself has no problem standing, eating, talking

2008-09-19T22:27:00.007-04:00

Curt Schilling courageously speaks out on Curt Schilling: "The thing about it for me, is, I haven't thrown a freakin' pitch all year, I've been the biggest waste of space, I've been robbing payroll for the entire season, no one feels worse about not contributing than me."

If you're so wracked by guilt, Curt, I'm pretty sure the Red Sox would accept a refund of the $8 million they paid you this year. Action, Curt. Not just words. Try it, just to screw with the natural order of things.

The Assman Cometh, Fieldeth

2008-09-14T03:38:00.005-04:00

Bartolo Colon returned yesterday and made this play (click on "Colon backhands"), which might be among my picks for play of the century if I didn't think it resulted from pure luck.

Dear Francisco Rodriguez

2008-09-12T02:03:00.006-04:00

Hey, man. Congrats on the saves record. That's pretty cool, capturing the record while performing no better than the fifth best closer in the league, figuring generously.

Allow me to make a suggestion. Your post-save celebrations are kind of a little bit much. That is: they're batshit insane, morally abhorrent, and unbecoming high-order, or even middling order, forms of life. They cause hives to break out on my soul.

Please curtail the arms-to-sky madness, before terrorists weave images of your displays into a recruitment video depicting the wicked permissiveness of American society. Stop it now.

Thanks. I really appreciate it. Keep lodging those saves. You'd totally be my MVP vote if I were under the influence of large quantities of alcohol and larger sums of money.

Regards,

J. Klompus

I guess that's where he practiced his pitching face...

2008-09-11T15:59:00.001-04:00

Ladies and gentlemen, I give you, The Papelbitch.

Crime against humanity

2008-09-01T15:26:00.003-04:00

John Sterling just called Ivan Rodriguez "the pudge-a-roo." If the Hague court ever adopts the death penalty, I'm funding Sterling's European vacation.

Lowrie > Lugo

2008-08-14T20:06:00.005-04:00

When Julio Lugo soon gets healthy, we'll find out the mettle of Terry Francona and the Red Sox front office. Because there's no way they should play their $9 million per year stinkfest over his rookie fill-in, Jed Lowrie.

Lowrie, as of yesterday, is sporting a .357 OBP and .451 SLG, good for a 110 OPS+. Lately he's been a doubles machine albeit with help from horrendous Rangers pitching. Lowrie's at-bats are still few, at 122, and if league pitching adjusts and sends him into a deep slump, Lugo's return as starting shortstop could be justified. But Lugo's 88 OPS+ this year, after a 65 mark last year, makes better offense more likely to come from Lowrie for the foreseeable future. Defensively, both players seem below average, but I'd be less surprised to see caches of Iraqi weapons of mass destruction than good evidence that Lowrie's fielding significantly outreeks Lugo's. In short, Lowrie seems quite promising, while Earl Weaver would have justly deemed Lugo "lucky to be in fucking baseball, for Christ's sake."

So we appear to have a perfect test-case: do the Red Sox value objective baseball performance over the avoidance of egg on face?

(Of course, they could also sign Barry Bonds, for the league minimum, and at the least acquire the best ever pinch hitter ever, and also piss off all of New England. Yes: there's no downside.)

Marvin Gaye Joins Earl Weaver in Godness

2008-08-11T20:58:00.005-04:00

You may have heard Marvin Gaye's 1983 rendition of the national anthem in recent Olympic ads, but Jesus H. Christ.* If anything bears repeating, it's this. Read a little about it here.

*What does the H. stand for? Humphrey? Humbolt? Did God decide the appellation or did Mary? Or both together? God: "I'll tell you what would be absolute perfection . . . " Mary: "You blew my chance to have hot unprotected sex, and there's no way you're now getting naming rights, pal."

I'll say this for the United States of America: its national anthem is a good song, which an inspired performance can make brilliant. I can't say as much for any other country. The pompous, soulless, and silly Chinese national anthem, for instance, makes me want to lobotomize myself and stick my brain up my own ass.

Redundant stats: the lowest of the low

2008-08-08T22:22:00.014-04:00

Those who seek to think clearly about the game of baseball can not only develop good ways of evaluating performance but also figure out how to treat the old, inferior ways.

Stat savants know, for example, that batting average and RBI are worse metrics than OBP and SLG. But they are more than just worse. They are redundant. They belong to a class of redundant stats: completely useless when better and equally simple stats are at hand, they deserve no place whatever in any kind of analysis.

Flawed stats are not necessarily redundant. Stolen bases is a flawed stat when it's deployed, as so often, to show a player's contributions to offense via the steal; stolen base percentage is vital to include because getting caught stealing hurts offensive production. Yet stolen bases is still a useful stat. It's raw data, for one, and together with caught stealing shows the magnitude of the baserunner's addition or subtraction to offense. Similarly, runs allowed per nine innings has long been seen as a flawed depiction of pitching performance because it punishes pitchers for fielding errors that lead to runs. Thus the "earned run" was invented and with it ERA, which exclude such run-causing errors. This was progress -- I suspect ERA is usually truer than RA. Still, runs allowed is worth attending to because better pitchers will record outs after errors instead of getting shelled. And so on: ERA is flawed for reasons that ERA+ addresses, but ERA remains somewhat useful (if only for being simpler). Any stat becomes a "flawed stat" when unjustified conclusions are drawn from it.

A few stats, however, are not only flawed but redundant, so bad they have no reason to exist. The ones that come to my mind happen to be the stats most often used to measure offensive production: batting average and RBI.

Batting average sort of, kind of, sometimes, hints at the thing OBP states precisely: how often a hitter gets on base instead of making outs. Now if walks, which batting average treats as non-events, were wholly the doing of the pitcher without regard to the batter's presence and actions, then batting average would be a fine stat. But walks are obviously the work of hitters too. Most hitters maintain stable walk rates over many years. That's because walking results from certain skills: the ability to tell balls from strikes, the ability to make contact to foul off close pitches, and the ability to hit for power, causing pitchers to nibble. If walks flowed solely from pitchers' mistakes, the difference between OBP and batting average would over time equalize for everyone, so it wouldn't much matter which stat is used. But some hitters consistently have large differentials between OBP and batting average, and others small.

Point is, batting average is redundant. If you want to know on-base ability, OBP is the stat to use. If you want to tell how often contact yields a hit, use batting average on balls hit in play. I can't see any purpose to which batting average should be put -- unless you're the agent of a hitter whose high contact rate produces a batting average more impressive than his OBP.

The redundancy of RBI is more obvious and less interesting. I'm not exactly sure which dimensions of offensive production RBI are supposed to show -- maybe clutchyish hitting plus slugging plus the crucial ability to hit a sac fly and exchange high-fives for making an out. At any rate, all those dimensions can be measured more effectively and still simply, without falling prey to RBI's glaring deficiency, its dependence on teammates getting on base. On the Big Red Machine, I might have had decent RBI totals, though only because I'm short enough to draw the occasional bases-loaded walk and humble enough about my baseball skills to know to kidnap members of the opposing pitcher's family, Jack Bauer style, in order to get pitches to hit. In retrospect, RBI is somewhat problematic as a redundant stat, since it's hard to tell what RBI even purports to signify and therefore which stats should replace it. In that way, stupidity is the RBI's own best defense. I hate the RBI.

Are there other redundant stats? I hereby put this question to Primarily Baseball's horde(s) of fans.* One important quality of redundant stats is that they can't be too much simpler to calculate than the stats that replace them. Otherwise very complex stats, like runs created, could be argued to render almost every offensive stat redundant, and furthermore there's value in simplicity.

*According to the OED, one fan can comprise a horde, if he maintains facial hair and habitually walks around wielding a hand-whittled club. So: stop shaving and start whittling. It's probably not a terrible tradeoff if you whittle fast.

P.S. Suzyn Waldman, August 9, 12:20 a.m., announcing a Yankees pitching chage: "And here comes Joe Torre . . ." She corrected herself after the commercial break, saying, "I'm a dope" and "I knew I would do that at least once this year." I agree with the former and share in the latter, but nice recovery, Suzyn.

P.P.S. I can't permit myself to type the name "Suzyn" without forswearing any intent to approve of the spelling.

"Colon sees light at end of tunnel"

2008-07-29T01:21:00.005-04:00

I'll bet you $1,000,000,000 trillion dollars, and the lives of all my relatives, distant as well as close, but especially close, that that MLB.com headline writer, having experienced (no less than generated) an effusion of creative genius equaled in music only by late-period Beethoven and in literature only by post-prison Dostoyevsky, thought up that cutie months ago and has since had it ready to deploy, quivering in its fully taut bow, awaiting the first sign of healing by the prostrate lower back of the Red Sox' fat backup plan. I mean, god damn, if my job were to think up headlines for Bartolo Colon news (if only!), I'd be prepped for every scenario short of alien invasion. Aliens Probe Colon. Make that, every scenario, without exception.

Is it Fair to Consider Home Run Derby Perfomance in MVP Deliberations?

2008-07-15T16:31:00.001-04:00

Because that was super-awesome.

David Simon Doesn't Suffer Fools Gladly And In Fact Kicks Fools' Asses

2008-07-07T23:08:00.004-04:00

It's good to see a person you like affirm the value of a thing you love and revile someone you hate. To wit: this interview with David Simon, co-creator of The Wire, in which Simon expresses a great passion for and knowledge of baseball and a fantastic loathing of toad-like commissioner-extraordinaire Bud "Exposing My Penis Would Actually Be More Merciful Than Making You Look At My Face" Selig. (My nickname, not Simon's, though perhaps I should be going for maximum ambiguity on this.) I bring you the fantastic-hatred part:

"But let me say this about the official side of Major League Baseball: They can kiss my pale, white ass. Seriously. Although that sequence reflected in no negative way on baseball itself -- a reporter was making up a story about a handicapped fan for his own benefit -- MLB considered our request to film on stadium property and use MLB logos and then denied the request. Unless our drama pretty much exalts baseball as the greatest game ever played by the greatest bunch of people ever to play a game, MLB will not allow the use of its logos or facilities in any act of storytelling. I find this cowardly and venal and offensive. A game that claims to be the national pastime should be confident enough and respectful enough of independent storytelling to allow itself to be seen within the context of ordinary American life. The script that we showed to MLB said nothing at all negative about the game itself; it showed a reporter being dishonest. But even that dynamic was too scary for the gutless, lawyerly humps who surround the commissioner's office. Apparently, baseball can only be depicted as a part of American life when it is glorified or marketed in the most wholesome manner. Pro football is just as bad by the way, but I somehow expect more integrity of baseball in such matters, given that it seeks to hold such an elemental claim on the American experience. So we shot the sequence anyway, just off the stadium grounds on Conway Street. And, lo and behold, those interviewed by the reporter -- in the revised shooting script anyway -- trashed Bud Selig for the steroid scandals and other foibles. And later in the run, during one of the newspaper's budget meetings, the steroid mess is revised with another dollop of disrespect for the commissioner's inaction heaped on top. Did MLB do better or worse for its wimpery? Hey, when you try to control everything, you control nothing."

When Idiots Attack II

2008-07-07T22:14:00.003-04:00

On a serious note, this is awful. A New England man suspected a guy with New York license plates of being a Yankees fan, so, naturally, he beat him with a metal baseball bat. The victim is now being hospitalized (and for the record doesn't like baseball that much). The incident follows a Sox-Yanks altercation in May in which a 43-year-old Yankees fan ran her car into taunting Sox fans, leaving one dead, another injured, and herself charged with second-degree murder.

These perpetrators were probably drunk, but assaulting fans of a rival baseball team shouldn't even be a drunk urge. I mean, there's a reasonable case to be made -- unpersuasive to me, but reasonable -- that it's pathetic to care as much as I do about teams composed of players I don't personally know, to whom I have no attachment beyond the mere coincidence that I live where they play. To physically attack someone for being a Yankees fan or a Sox fan, or for owning license plates from a neighboring state, home to the largest city in the world, is total fuck madness. Both organizations should consider addressing the issue.

Whew. Okay. That was no fun. Let's see. Hmm. Curt Schilling is rotund like a state capitol.

Better.

Under the Knife: Better than Will Carroll's Version

2008-06-23T17:41:00.003-04:00

PECOTA projects a 90 percent chance that Curt Schilling was talking all through surgery.

TekWatch: If 1 + 1 Is A Positive Integer, David Ortiz Is More Valuable Than Jason Varitek

2008-06-03T09:22:00.011-04:00

The Boston Globe's Nick Cafardo, today, on David Ortiz's injury: "Will the Sox miss a massive force like Ortiz? Of course. He and Ramírez are the top power hitters in the lineup. But the player who has proven toughest to lose from the lineup is Jason Varitek."

Cafardo's would-be reasoning is that Varitek is a good pitch-caller. Cafardo declines to provide evidence of this pitch-calling skill or to clarify how such skill would make one the most difficult to lose from a lineup, especially when one is nearly the worst hitter on that lineup, which contains one of the best hitters ever and -- oh yes -- David Ortiz, who frequently gets more total bases in a game than Jason Varitek got throughout high school (both senses).

The Boston Globe's Nick Cafardo Sr., August 1945, on the war: "Will the Japanese miss Nagasaki? Sure. It and Hiroshima are two populous cities. But the thing that would be toughest to lose is the emperor's favorite midget eunuch trapeze artist, Taki the No-Testes Clown, whose determined labors and trimmed beard unite the working classes in fealty to the empire."

TekWatch: No Hittahs

2008-05-21T10:21:00.008-04:00

Following Jon Lestah's no-no, commentators have lauded Jason Varitek for being first to catch four no-hitters. It's TekWatch's responsibility to make two points:

1. How far is Jason Varitek responsible for a no-hit performance? Depite the furor over Curt Schilling's waving off Varitek before giving up the single that broke up his no-hit bid last year, Lester said he waved off Varitek several times in the ninth inning alone. That said, Varitek has a photographic memory and studies hard, the New York Times reports, although part of the Times's evidence is ostensible sarcasm from Johnny Damon: "I always thought Varitek was amazing — the way he calls a game, the way he prepares, the way he carries around the luggage."

2. Varitek ruined Schilling's no-hit bid last year, tipping pitches to the Athletics' Shannon Stewart, who landed the A's only hit with two out in the ninth. Why? The proof and the motive are one and the same. After every no-hitter he catches, Tek hoists the pitcher high into the air, holding him there so all can see the face of triumph. But, Tek obviously realized, attempting to hoist Curt Schilling, with his marshmallow midsection, could end in embarrassing failure and career-ending injury, if not total paralysis. In tipping off Stewart, Varitek did the only thing he in good conscience could. And that, ladies and gentlemen, is how rumors get started.

From everyone at TekWatch, congrats, Jason. You'll always be our Working Class Hero.

Another Blustering Hank

2008-05-19T20:36:00.009-04:00

"I still consider myself the home-run king," Henry Aaron said Saturday.

Well. As long as it's cool to make claims that are objectively wrong, I'd like to inform Mr. Aaron: I consider myself the home-run king. Stolen-base champ, too. I am the world's greatest pitcher of all time everywhere.

From Hank Aaron's autobiography: "I was so frustrated that at one point [in the 1968 season] I tried using a pep pill -- a greenie -- that one of my teammates gave me. When that thing took hold, I thought I was having a heart attack." Would Aaron have continued to use amphetamines if they 'd gone down smoother? (That's if he stopped. We'll never know. Baseball didn't have a drug-testing policy then. Unlike in 2004, when Bonds passed his steroids test and hit 45 home runs and was otherwise utterly awesome. Yes, Bonds very likely juiced before then, but let's apply the same standards to everyone and view Bonds's wrongdoing in context.)

Never thought I'd say this, but: Please shut up, Hank Aaron.

BushChat: Evidence of Mental Activity Disturbingly Ample

2008-05-16T13:09:00.013-04:00

Remember George W. Bush? He's the U.S. President. Known for his quick thinking – so quick it can be mistaken for the total absence of thinking – Bush invaded Iraq because, apparently, God told him to and his gut told him to, which kind of means George W. Bush believes the all-powerful Creator of the Universe resides in his digestive organs.

Bush, you will recall, gained the experience necessary to be Governor of Texas by owning the Texas Rangers. He's not doing much these days, so he was interviewed partly about baseball. Wait, just wait, till you read all his wild claims, his faulty premises, his God-gut thinking on the game of baseball:

Q: Mr. President, you're a Major League Baseball team owner again. Everyone is a free agent. You have a Yankees-like wallet. Who is your first position player? Who's your pitcher?

THE PRESIDENT: That's a great question. I like [Chase Utley] from the Philadelphia Phillies. He's a middle infielder, which is always – you know, they say you have strength up the middle – there's nothing better than having a good person up the middle that can hit. And Roy Halladay from the Toronto Blue Jays is a great pitcher. He's a steady guy, he burns up innings. And I'm sure I'm leaving some other good ones out, but those –

Okay, there's a folksy-sounding phrase about having strength up the middle, and Halladay's injuries in 2004 and 2005 make me project him as less steady than, say, Johan Santana. But Bush's are good picks backed by sound reasoning. Good-hitting middle infielders are rare and therefore particularly valuable if you're picking only one position player, because replacement-level corner basemen hit better than their middle-infielder counterparts. Utley, in particular, is awesome. Halladay wouldn't be my first choice of pitcher, but he's in the discussion. Bush is right that Halladay eats up innings, pitching seven complete games in 2007.

In sum: George W. Bush's brain is awake, and it's eating our President.

Indeed the interviewer, hitherto treated to Bush’s incoherent ravings on politics, was taken aback by the sudden lucidity:

Q: We thought you were going to go A-Rod, Josh Beckett.

THE PRESIDENT: Josh Beckett is good, yes, he's real good, too. I mean, look, that's a tough question to answer on the fly like this, Michael.

That's a tough question to answer on the fly, Bush said. Bush admitted that his knowledge and judgment have limits. He implied he would have to scrutinize evidence, weigh competing arguments, think carefully, in order to make a decision in which he could be confident.

Clearly, this is not George W. Bush. The White House has outfitted an intern with a Bush mask to grant interviews while the real Bush naps wistfully beside his two dogs. "Laugh at your own jokes," they told the intern. "Don't think; just speak. Say freedom a lot."

Alas, on the topic of baseball, the intern’s common sense finally shone through.

(Shamless joke theft: Could this intern be the famous Bill Fremp of Edgewood, KY? Just as Fremp was fired from JoeChat duties at ESPN, Bush suddenly started making sense after eight years of spewing piffle. The coincidence is just too great. Or is Fremp's younger brother Skip expanding the family business? Skip Fremp. Also of Edgewood, KY. Known as the "dumb brother," he didn't attend college. So while Bill landed a job at ESPN, Skip went into politics.)

Q: Now, Mr. President, I wonder if you think that Major League Baseball is doing enough to combat steroids use, and specifically, would you favor a blood test to check for human growth hormone. As you know the players union says it's an unwarranted

THE PRESIDENT: Yes, look, I think what they need to do is to come to an agreement and to assure fans like me that the sport is clean. I mean, I –

Q: But what would that take?

THE PRESIDENT: Well, I haven't studied all the particulars and all the testing.

Again. George W. Bush recognizes the need to study particulars. This from the man who, when warned by Colin Powell as to what could go wrong in an invasion of Iraq, responded: "You know what I just realized – your name is Colin. And your last name rhymes with bowel. You're nearly Colon Bowel! That's so assy." Then he scratched himself and left the room.

But I do know they need to get this era behind them quickly. Baseball is a fabulous sport. I used to say it's a sport played by normal-sized people. It turns out some of these normal-sized people are obviously very strong and very quick, but nevertheless, normal-size – you don't have to be a huge guy to play baseball. And it's a great family sport, and it needs to be cleaned up.

This is starting to sound like the rambly Dubya we know and mock. The main issue reminded him of something else, "normal-sized people," which he began to rant about without reference to the main issue. Anyway, although you don't have to be a huge guy to play good baseball, you certainly can be huge; bulk helps in hitting home runs.

And he never answers the question. Then again, it's a stupid question that's not his business to answer. So bravo, kind of.

Q: And there haven't been enough normal-sized people.

Way to subtly prod him into criticizing baseball for steroid usage. Will the "President" bite?

THE PRESIDENT: Well, there's – yes, there are a lot of normal-sized people. I mean, there's a lot of little dudes who can play the game and play it well.

Nothing doing! Bush/Fremp evades the journalist's gambit, masterfully deploying broken grammar and odd colloquialism to distract us from the thrust of the question!

George W. Bush, Bill or Skip Fremp – whoever you are, you don't fool this citizen.

Forget 500 Homers -- This Is Better

2008-05-14T16:13:00.007-04:00

Moments ago, Manny Ramirez made a spectacular over-the-shoulder catch to rob the Orioles of a two-run extra-base hit, climbed the outfield wall and high-fived a Red Sox fan, and threw the ball into the infield to complete a double play. In that order. Let me repeat: he high-fived a fan in the middle of making a double play. That is so incredibly awesomely cool.

UPDATE:

"That's how you get your All-Star vote," Manny said. "I'm pretty sure that guy is going to vote for me. You get your votes one at a time. It's something that came out. I went hard into the wall and I decided not to try to stop before the wall. It was fun. I loved it."

Said center fielder Jonathan Van Every: "I don't think that's ever happened before, and I don't think it will ever happen again."

Failure Is Harder When You Suck

2008-05-13T11:58:00.011-04:00

It wasn’t nice when the middle school bullies made fun of the retarded kids, so it may be unfair of me to pick apart a column by Kevin Millar. And yet.

The thing that separates the Major League player from your collegiate guys or the ones that are still in the Minor Leagues is how we deal with struggles and deal with getting out on a daily basis. If you get 500 at-bats in a season and you get out 350 times, you need to deal with failure 350 times. That could be a lineout, a robbed home run or a strikeout.

Kevin Millar, your facial hair is cute, as is the fact that you bat cleanup at age 590, albeit on a terrible lineup. But you are bum-fuck backwards here. Major leaguers are major leaguers because they are the most talented players. They actually need to be less good at dealing with failure than minor leaguers, because they fail less. And when they do fail, life looks less bad. Which situation is more conducive to level-headedness:

A. Major leaguer: I struck out. Still, I’m making $4 million per year to play baseball, and my hot wife will fuck me tonight.
B. Minor leaguer: I struck out. I’m making $25 a year. My girlfriend just left me for a plumber. And she was ugly. Minor leaguers need to be outrageously good at failing.

I truly believe that this game is 70 percent mental. We all can throw and we all can hit at this level. What separates the great players from the common players is the mental side of it and the ability to not deviate from your plan on a daily basis.

So the way to be Barry Bonds is to think: I will hit home runs. I will hit home runs. And not deviate from this plan when anyone reminds you, you’re Julio Lugo and you’re lucky you're in fucking baseball. Or when they fire you for striking out in 95 percent of your at bats.

The great players stay in the batter’s box after third strikes so they can keep swinging; they don’t let some self-proclaimed umpire tell them their plan didn’t work.

Seriously: Why not note that major league success is significantly a function of natural talent? What’s the hangup with acknowledging the pretty obvious truth?

Personally, when I go through struggles, I know there are more eyes on me…I try to run harder on popups, because I think it looks 10 times worse when a guy is struggling and he starts to dog it. When a guy's struggling and giving you 100 percent, you can't really say anything.

When a guy’s struggling and giving 100 percent, one can justly say a variety of things, such as: You suck. You’re benched. You’re fired.

Hey, you don’t think Millar, having said that success in the major leagues results mostly from all-out effort, will do something nutty and say effort can hurt you and never explain the difference between effective effort and ineffective effort? Nah, me neither. Until:

But sometimes, all that extra effort even works against you. You can try too hard, and then it snowballs on you. You're trying harder, then you look up at the scoreboard and you've gotten two hits in a week. Guys go through struggles where they haven't hit a home run in 100 at-bats, but they're trying to hit five home runs in one game.

Okay then. Players, in Millar’s view, need to moderate their effort level to suit their talent level, so that they’re not trying to hit home runs when it’s unrealistic to expect such an outcome. Natural talent sneaks in Millar’s framework. Julio Lugo is fucked.

I snapped in high school. I threw stuff. I used to tear my helmet and my batting gloves off. But when I got to the big league level, I used to watch teammates of mine, like Jim Eisenreich and Gary Sheffield, handle themselves like professionals. When they struck out, the batting gloves came off and the helmet went back in the box. They never threw anything.

Gary Sheffield? Professional?

Gary Sheffield? Professional?

- September '92 on his days in Milwaukee: "The Brewers brought out the hate in me. I was a crazy man. . . . I hated everything about the place. If the official scorer gave me an error, I didn't think was an error, I'd say, 'OK, here's a real error,' and I'd throw the next ball into the stands on purpose.'"
- July '05 after punching a fan in the right-field stands at Fenway: “What did I do to be a villain?" Sheffield listened patiently as someone recounted the reasoning. "Well, I mean you can't look at it that way. I didn't initiate it. It's a situation where I showed restraint, and I moved on from there."
- On his having two kids with two women by age 17: "That was part of my plan. I didn't want to be the typical athlete who's single all his career. I wanted the all-American family, and I did it the wrong way."
- There is so much more.

One of the two guys to whom Millar points as a paragon of professionalism punched a fan. He punched the fan at Fenway, when Millar was on the Red Sox!

Here's a logic puzzle:

Premise 1: Sheffield punched a fan at Fenway in 2005.
Premise 2: Millar was on the Red Sox in 2005.
Premise 3: The Red Sox play at Fenway.
Premise 4: Okay, Millar definitely played in the game in which Sheff swiped at the fan.

Conclusion: What the fuck, dude?

[Orioles Manager] Dave Trembley's done a great job of understanding that April is just the first month of a six-month season. He understands that April's not a fun month on the East Coast anyway. You can count on three fingers how many games we've played in 80 degrees, and Dave Trembley's done a great job of showing confidence in players through their struggles.

Millar is obviously talking about his own struggles and Trembley’s dubious decision to keep Millar in the cleanup hole while Millar gets to first base less often than Bill Gates in high school.

The Orioles played remarkably well in April, with a W-L of 15-11. At that pace, they’d win 93 games and be the biggest surprise possibly ever. Of course, they won’t maintain such a pace. It’s either because they don’t have the talent or because they don’t think of ponies and rainbows when they come to bat. Not sure which. Let’s take a vote:

Me: talent.
Millar: ponies et al.

I win.

You just keep fighting, and overall, this club has really handled itself great through its struggles.

Millar, you have struggled. The Orioles have done incredibly well. Why do I get the sense you go home after every game only to cry, masturbate, and cry more?

Millar’s musings continue in like fashion. I’m hungry, and willing food to appear on my desk isn’t working.

A Minor Correction...

2008-05-12T16:55:00.002-04:00

Buried near the back of this otherwise fine article is the following sentence:

"Congratulations to Greg Maddux, who got his 350 victories the old fashioned way. As opposed to Roger Clemens."

Now, by the "old fashioned way" I assume he means without steroids. If so, then he in fact could not be more wrong.

This Can't Happen

2008-05-09T19:36:00.006-04:00

John Sterling, the "voice of the Yankees," announcing the Yankees-Tigers game on May 9, 2008, at 7:29 p.m., after recounting the Tigers' immense pitching woes, stated: "And they're not hitting; that's why they have the [dismal] record they have."

At that moment, the Tigers were third in the American League in runs scored, second in on-base percentage, fourth in slugging, and, in case you want to take Sterling very literally, fourth in hits. Out of 14 teams. Here's MLB.com's chart of AL offense, captured a few minutes after Sterling spoke.

Perhaps the Tigers' lineup is so stacked that it has somewhat underperformed relative to talent. But clearly, Sterling is dead wrong. The Tigers have a bad record despite their effective offense.

Does it matter? In a world where genocide rages, a billion people live on less than $1 a day, and other things happen that Angelia Jolie is working indefatigably to correct, one is tempted to say: let John Sterling's goofy ass emit what it wants. At the same time, truth is inseparable. Seeking and telling the truth about one thing is no different from seeking and telling the truth about something else, because truth is, or so I think, valuable for its own sake rather than for any byproducts it may bring.

The baseball announcer's responsibility is to transmit accurate, insightful information about baseball games. Sterling said the Tigers are hitting poorly, which is false by any standard. He's more likely bullshitting than lying, failing to check whether his utterances are true. Checking being an easy, ten-second endeavor, the inescapable conclusion is that Sterling doesn't much care about the truth and doesn't take his responsibilities seriously. That can't be good for baseball. That can't be good in any other realm. At the least, such untruths insult fans and should embarrass if not Sterling himself then the Yankees organization to whom he is supposed to be accountable.

Alex Rodriguez Is A Fearsome, Hulking Pussy

2008-05-07T19:32:00.010-04:00

While news of A-Rod's fainting during the delivery of his child has united Yankees and Red Sox fans in mockery, another juicy nugget has gone less noticed. Here's how A-Rod describes meeting his future robo-wife Cynthia, at a Miami gym: "I scouted her out for a month....I wanted to see her routine, and I wanted to see what time she came in, see how consistent she was. And sure enough, she was like a machine. She would come in right after work and get on the treadmill and do her abs. And finally, I build enough courage after about 3 1/2 weeks. And I said, 'I know you are going to go do some abs after, and do you mind if I join you?'"

In 1996, the year he met Cynthia, A-Rod finished second in MVP voting, OPSing 1.045. He barely had the balls just to approach this Godzilla woman. I'm an 80-year-old fictional TV character and I'll hit on any 23-year-old chick my nearsighted eyes allow me to spot. My prostate is the size of a grapefruit. I don't know I've urinated until my feet feel wet. A-Rod, by contrast, was a drippingly virile 20 years of age, poised to earn hundreds of millions of dollars. American dollars. A-Rod has no game whatsoever.

In the time it takes A-Rod to introduce himself to a woman, Derek Jeter would fuck her and her hot friends, give them all herpes, and obtain a restraining order against them, not because they were stalking him but just because he didn't want to accidentally run into them and re-fuck them when he could plow so many new fine pieces of ass.

Even when he's moving on two women at once, A-Rod looks like he's hoping to impress them enough so they will agree to see his collection of model trains.

Curt Schilling: Profiles in Laziness

2008-05-05T11:16:00.010-04:00

So lazy is Curt Schilling qua blogger that in praising Blue Jays pitcher Dustin McGowan -- "The McGowen (sp?) kid has as electric an arm as any young pitcher in the game" -- Schilling decided to leave things at "(sp?)" rather than look the name up. Schilling knew he didn't know how to spell the guy's name. This lack of knowledge bothered Schilling. But instead of finding the correct spelling by, say, searching for "McGowen Jays," a feat that Google performs in exactly .55 seconds, Schilling decided to proclaim to the world "(sp?) -- I feel it's incumbent upon me, as a responsible blogger, to admit I don't know something yet not incumbent upon me to expend the one half-second of effort needed to acquire that knowledge."

Most people would act to correct their misspelling as soon as the misspelling became known to them. Curt Schilling is one of the few people in the world for whom a middle ground of acknowledging but not correcting such minor inaccuracies even exists. When he passes on, Curt Schilling's brain should be flown to Switzerland under military escort so teams of doctors can study its every nook.

"Fritz, it turns out there's a gene for sanctimony."

(Also, random commenter "rachelciprotti" corrects Schilling's spelling of the name of his own teammate: "FYI: It’s Jon Lester, not John =).")

Fuck You Tom Verducci, Redux

2008-05-01T11:14:00.002-04:00

Sorry, but I couldn't resist: I can't ever remember Bonds being close to this much of a dick towards his teammates. This isn't the first time Wagner has been an insufferable ass, and it doubtlessly won't be the last. I am patiently waiting the first sportswriter to call for the release of this clubhouse cancer.

Go Fuck Yourself, Tom Verducci

2008-04-29T15:02:00.004-04:00

This article is one of the most infuriating sports articles I have ever read. Seriously, I just spent the last fifteen minutes pacing around my apartment fuming at how fucking terrible it is (yes, I am aware I have no life.) I don't know why it annoys me quite as much as it does; maybe because Verducci somehow manages to include almost every single stupid, tendentious, and downright dishonest anti-Bonds argument into one crisp piece. This really deserves the full FJM-style treatment, but instead I am going to selectively take quotes out of context and vent.

He made no sense for a National League team, given his mobility, knee, leg and glovework issue

I know a lot of people say this, but it is really stupid. Somehow, by some miracle, Adam Dunn, Pat Burrell, Carlos Lee and Moises Alou all have jobs as National League left fielders. Manny Ramirez and Raul Ibanez are in the AL, but are still asked to play the field. All of these guys are MUCH worse on defense than Bonds (see, say, this and check out the 2007 +/- leaders). Bonds is also essentially a league average baserunner. It is true that, for pretty much the first time in his career, Bonds was a below average defensive player, but he is still far from terrible. He is also, of course, less durable at this point in his career than those guys (well, except for Alou), but that is OBVIOUSLY a reason to simply pay him less, not to refuse to sign him at all!

How do all of these other guys manage to have major league jobs despite sucking a big one on defense? Well Tom, maybe, just maybe, it is because their hitting is more than enough to compensate for their lack of fielding. Here is what Verducci says about Bonds' hitting:

Bonds did hit 28 home runs last year and reached base in almost half his plate appearances. His bat would help.

I LOVE how he downplays Bonds' 480 OBP. "Sure, Ichiro gets a base hit in a little over a third of his plate appearances. His bat would help." Bonds' 480 OBP last year was better than any non-Bonds season since Mickey Mantle in 1962. Because of this, and his still very healthy 565 SLG, Bonds was per plate appearance, the best hitter in baseball last year. Yes, he was. It is a little annoying to show, since he fell just short of qualifying for a batting title because of a bruised toe late in the season, but check out this. To be fair, if you account for the fact that NL pitchers are worse than AL pitchers, Bonds probably drops below ARod and Magglio, but he is still unarguably top 5.

Think about this, setting everything else aside for a minute. You have a guy who was, per plate appearance, arguably the best hitter in baseball; who is not great, but reasonable on defense and baserunning; and yet, who can't find a job offer, for any price, the following season. If he hadn't stubbed his toe late in the season, he would have been more valuable than Jimmy Rollins, who won the fucking MVP award; if you use as a baseline positional average instead of replacement level, he arguably was. Isn't this situation REALLY fishy? Doesn't it seem wildly implausible that any extra baggage could be so heavy as to bring a player this good all the way down to below replacement level? Isn't that kind of crazy?

And yet Verducci, of course, goes on to list the standard dreary Bonds' negatives, and suggests, without a hint of evidence, that these somehow more than outweigh the tremendous positives Bonds would bring:

The risks? The possibilities that he poisons the clubhouse, challenges the manager's authority (think he's going to listen to John Gibbons, such as if he asks him to stretch with the team?), demands special treatment, brings media and legal distractions, breaks down physically, turns 43 in July at a time when stars of the Steroid Era are falling off career cliffs, and generally harms whatever team culture an organization has established.

I call bullshit on almost all of these. Ok, to be fair I don't know Barry Bonds' personally, and how much of a jerk he is (although, given Bonds' perfectly understandable reticence to talk to media morons, neither does Verducci.) Everything I have seen suggests that he is more of an aloof loner than a total offensive asshole like Clemens. But that is sort of beside the point. The fact, is, there are TONS of assholes in MLB, and all of them but Barry Bonds are able to get jobs if they can produce. Jeff Kent, as far as I am aware, still has a job, as does Milton Bradley, and there is no way Barry is more of an asshole than either of them. Gary Sheffield is a fucking lunatic. Julio Lugo is terrible at baseball and beat his fucking wife and he still has a job. Alex Rodriguez is a poo poo head who never gets invited to sleep overs and just signed the biggest contract in sports history. Frank Thomas was by all accounts always a huge problem in the clubhouse, and he was scooped up almost instantly.

I especially love the fact that Verducci mentions manager authority. I am skeptical how much that matters, but that is not the point. This is in the context of the Blue Jays, who in the offseason traded for Scott Rolen. Scott Rolen. You are talking about a man who, despite his once prodigious skills (for a number of years he was as good a fielder as Brooks Robinson and a far better hitter) has been driven off of two different teams because of feuds with his manager! Scott Rolen is also, of course, mentioned a few paragraphs down. It's like the normal chain of mental causation known as "thought" is simply inoperative.

As for Bonds' age, well, I could point out that last year was by far the best season ever by a player that age and that if 2007 is indeed Bonds' last year it would arguably the greatest final season in baseball history (non-Sandy Koufax division) and... but what's the point? Even I am getting bored, as I am sure any reader must have long ago. Reason does not motivate the anti-Bonds camp. Consider every anti-Bonds argument with as much weight as one could reasonably give it and at best it adds up to Bonds being worth $12M instead of $18M (on the current free agent market). The big C word is the only reasonable explanation for Bonds remaining unemployed. Most writers are loathe to accept this, in part because it involves accusing people they deal with on a regular basis of some rather unsavory behaviour, but more importantly because of an intense hatred of the man that goes back at least fifteen years.

I understand that the tone of this post has been rather unhinged, but that is because I am genuinely angry. Barry Bonds is the greatest baseball player I will ever see, and not being able to see him in the league for as long as he is both willing and able to play diminishes my enjoyment. In doing so, the league and its writers commit a greater crime against the game of baseball than anything ever done by Barry Lamar Bonds.

Really?

2008-04-23T00:33:00.002-04:00

Look, John Smoltz is a great pitcher, probably one of the top 40-50 in baseball history, and reaching 3000 K's is a pretty impressive accomplishment, even if strikeout numbers have been historically high over Smoltz's career. Still. isn't this headline a bit much? I mean, surely no one thinks Smoltz is "greater" than this guy or this guy or this guy, right?

Doug Mirabelli, Don't Think You're Special, Because You Suck

2008-04-08T15:07:00.006-04:00

As the Red Sox were going through introductions, they wen[t] through the catchers, finishing with Doug Mirabelli. Mirabelli, wearing a black shirt and dark coat, rather than the uniforms worn by the rest, got a big ovation, turned and saluted the crowd. He then got his ring, and walked back into the dugout, instead of going to stand in the infield with the other members of the current Red Sox. (Boston Globe)

Doug Mirabelli, you stink. Bad. Your OBP last year, .278, would have been merely decent as a batting average. No one whose opinion is worth caring about cares about you. So spare us further demonstrations, retreat to Back Bay or wherever the fuck, and see if you can't use your shiny new World Series ring—which you got because you wound up on the same team as David Ortiz, Manny Ramirez, and Josh Beckett—to seduce skeezie middle-aged women for whom orthodonture is something they heard of, once, but don't remember what it means.

Red Sox Roundup

2008-04-08T00:02:00.007-04:00

Headline: "Colon to be examined tomorrow."

Curt Schilling lists his own charity website as being http://www.curt'spitch.org/ even though websites can't have apostrophes.

Girls in pink Red Sox hats but are also pretty sane—if you exist, you don't want to read this. Jacoby Ellsbury was raised a Mormon. Primarily Baseball will enshrine in its illustrious Hall of Fame the first fan who proves whether Ellsbury dons Mormon underwear but who—this is crucial—doesn't tell us how the proof was obtained.

The Sox Shop Tokyo

2008-03-24T01:48:00.004-04:00

From Tokyo, Kevin Youkilis reports: "We just tried to look for stuff, but we really didn't buy much because we found out it's very expensive. We saw a lot of stuff that we can get in the States for cheaper. Hopefully we'll get a chance to get some Japanese culture stuff later on in the trip."

It's the Boston Red Sox and they can't afford to buy anything in Japan? Did anyone tell Kevin Youkilis that the $40,000 stipend each player (and coach) got for this trip is equal to like 1.5 billion trillion bazillion yen? And that the prices of things, while large in number, are also in yen? Meaning that things really aren't so much? And affordable on a $40-fucking-god-damn-000 week's stipend, on top of their preexisting fucking tremendous salary? What are the Red Sox shopping for?

Youkilis: Manny, we've got to get this. A beautiful geisha, with a Blu-Ray player coming out of her vagina.

Ramirez: Naw, man, we can get that shit for cheap back home.

The Sox are Fucked

2008-03-13T19:47:00.002-04:00

After all, you can't lose the best baseball player ever and still expect to succeed.

Manny Ramirez, Possibly Not Very Intellectual

2008-03-12T22:20:00.011-04:00

Not since Germany last invaded Poland has the news been so troubling. MLB reports that Manny Ramirez has changed. This year he is eating vegetables, meditating, and reading The Secret, a New Age motivational book that renders Ramirez one notch away from the final descent into Scientology:

"I like it. I don't need to read a whole book to know what it's about. It's about this," he said, pointing to his head. "It's about what you want. If I come to you and tell you I want to take you to my house and cook you a steak, then you'll know. Because what it is is if you think positive stuff, all the positive stuff is going to come to you. Making things happen for yourself. Hey, that's what it's all about. If you said to yourself, 'Oh, I'm tired today, brother.' Then you're going to be tired all day. That's it. That's what it's all about."

Manny goes on to affirm that all he does is read while, at the same time, not reading: "That's all I do is read, read, read, read, read . . . I love it. I haven't finished [the book yet], but I don't need to. I love it. I already know what it's all about."

The Boston Red Sox will finish in last place.

Greg Mankiw Flaunts His Douchebaggery For Us All

2008-03-11T10:57:00.002-04:00

From Greg Mankiw's blog: "The best sentence . . . I have read so far today is from Brian Hollar: 'I was talking with a professor here at GMU and another PhD student recently and all three of us agreed that after earning all the advanced degrees, nearly everything you ultimately use in economics, you learn in Mankiw.'"

I was talking with some of my ex-girlfriends recently and all of them agreed that after fucking a number of other men, they realized that fucking me was the only real sexual experience they've ever had, thanks to my massive cock and expert technique, and from now on they never need to fuck again, only to think of me pounding them in every orifice.

Red Sox Statement on Schilling

2008-02-08T10:44:00.000-05:00

From MLB.com, with liberties:

"Curt Schilling was examined by Red Sox doctors in January after he reported feeling right shoulder discomfort. Curt has started a program of rest, rehabilitation and shoulder strengthening in an attempt to return to pitching. He's a huge fucking stubborn fat asshole who won't get surgery and void his contract, so come season's end we will pay him $8 million shit-covered dollars. If you have prior experience dipping dollars in shit, please contact the Boston Red Sox."

This Just, Deliciously, In

2008-02-05T17:23:00.001-05:00

Curt Schilling has added bylines to each entry on his blog. Yes, his blog, the one that reads "Curt Schilling’s Official Blog" at the top because only Curt Schilling posts on it. It also has a photo of Schilling pitching, with Schilling's signature. Also, it is named "38 Pitches;" Schilling wears number 38 and is a pitcher.

Maybe I'm being unfair. When a recent post ended its title with just one exclamation point rather than five--without changing fonts in the middle of a single sentence--I did for a moment doubt the identity of the author.

Hold On, Twins!

2008-01-29T19:36:00.000-05:00

Before you, Twins, sign on the dotted line--trading probably the best pitcher in baseball for an outfielder and three pitching prospects, the centerpiece being 18 years old, an age at which he might become a quite fine ballplayer or might instead run off with his girlfriend of three months to live out the rest of his days amongst the Bushmen of the Kalahari--please consider my offer.

For Johan Santana, I will deliver a you "grab bag" of eight young, male Cuban refugees. There's a decent chance a few of them could go on to play ball.

I'm not sure how I'll get them in the country. And I don't yet have a baseball team. For Johan Santana, I can figure out the details. As long as you're giving away Santana for youths brimming with verve--though perhaps not facial hair--you've got to like my offer over the Mets' mere four-prospect deal. For every Met, you would get two fresh Cubans. If you drive a hard bargain, I'll make sure they really look like ballplayers.

TekWatch: Avast Ye Matey

2007-12-30T01:04:00.000-05:00

I cannot construct a sentence about this picture in my own mind without a Katrina of laughter demolishing the effort.

So here's a stream of consciousness, Ulysses-style word association about the captain-on-captain action:

homosexual
homosexual
not that there's anything wrong with it
okay there does appear to be something wrong with it in this context what with the hooks and swords and tek's opportunity to use any new tricks on papelbon
really very homosexual

Awards time

2007-12-24T12:58:00.000-05:00

Drumrolls, please. This year's first annual

Primarily Baseball

award for

Excellence in Sportswriting Excellence

for the pursuit and achievement of excellence in sportswriting excellence

in the year of our Fucking God Damn Lord 2007

goes to Primarily Baseball.

This special site, in its mere three months of existence, brought trenchant analysis and unparalleled wit to baseball fans the world over. It pissed off such luminaries as diehard Jason Varitek fans, most of whom were overweight. Thanks to Primarily Baseball, the might of the righteous on earth is today stronger than it has ever been. May God continue to bless America.

Ladies and Gentlemen

2007-12-20T22:23:00.000-05:00

As long as Johan Santana isn't being traded, why not take a moment to digest every one of Thomas Friedman's columns, past and future, in handy, four-minute YouTube form. I warned you.

The Lady Doth Protest Too Much

2007-12-19T13:20:00.000-05:00

methinks.

¡Santana Trade Johan Now Instant Bonzai!

2007-12-19T13:00:00.001-05:00

There's a rumor going around that the Sox-Santana deal will be made within days. I've checked it out. Here's how these rumors get started.

1. A man employed by the Twin Cities' Pioneer Press--a paper probably too thin to wipe my ass with--wrote in an opinion column that "there's buzz that the Santana trade could be made within days." Buzz. Buzz. Buzz is less than "sources speculate." Buzz means there isn't even a source. Buzz is how the earth hums when you put your ear to the ground. And all Buzz tells us is that the Santana trade could be made within days. This is necessarily true. There's no attempt to proffer a likelihood or confidence level, because those freaky things would require weighing of evidence, which would necessitate thought, and we can't have that, now motherfucking can we.

2. Everyone else reports it.

Hold on

2007-12-19T11:16:00.001-05:00

Let me get this straight. Bud Selig is presenting people with awards named after himself?

If Selig were cool, the self-named award would make him even cooler. But it's always struck me that if a cesspool could snivel, it would look a lot like Bud Selig.

So I Guess This Means the Sox Should DFA Manny...

2007-12-18T21:13:00.001-05:00

When Jack and I (ok, it was mainly Jack) created Primarily Baseball a few months ago, the last thing I ever suspected is that we would evolve into a forum for critiquing Baseball Prospectus. My first post, in fact, relied almost entirely on work done at Baseball Prospectus. Joe Sheehan is probably my favorite baseball columnist, Nate Silver is one of the smartest sabermetricians I know of working today, and most of the other writers are very good too.

That said, this has to be the dumbest fucking thing ever written.

(Password necessary, I'm afraid.)

For those who can't access the article--or choose not to suffer Huckaby's meandering verbiage-- the basic point is that replacement level, as traditionally understood, has been set much too low by baseball analysts, at least for players on the "left end" of the defensive spectrum (i.e. 1B/DH's and bad fielding corner outfielders). Replacement level is supposed to be the level of a typical AAA player or backup, i.e. the sort of player that can be easily acquired for little to no cost. The notion plays a large value in many value metrics, which are built around the assumption that it is the contributions a player makes above what a replacement level player would have done that constitute that players value to his team. Typically, replacement level is set to be around 75-80% of league average performance.

Now, the thesis that replacement level performance is actually higher than sabermetricians have thus far assumed is not, on the face of it, an absurd claim. It may even be true. However, Huckaby gives absolutely support to this thesis. His argument, so far as I can tell, is the following: Jack Cust was a replacement level player last year, in the sense that the A's acquired him from the Padres AAA affiliate after injuries had decimated their roster. Thus, we can use Cust as a reasonable benchmark for replacement level. Cust, in case you forgot, immediately started raking upon joining the A's: he hit 6 home runs in his first 7 games, including a walk off blast off one Joe Borowski. His numbers regressed as the year wore on, but Cust still finished the year with an extremely impressive .256/.408/.504 line (as that suggests, he was an amazing Three True Outcomes hitter; over 58% of his plate appearances resulted in a walk, a strikeout or a home run.) Using Cust as the definition of replacement level, Huckaby posts a long list of big name players--including Mike "MVP" Lowell--who were below replacement level by this definition.

The problem with this argument seems blindingly obvious: just because Cust happened to be freely available talent--a term sometimes, perhaps incorrectly, considered synonymous with replacement level--does not imply that the calibre of his performance was somehow replacement level. Suggesting as much makes as much sense as saying that that Mike Piazza represents "63'rd draft round talent." Jack Cust drastically outperformed general expectations last year.

Amazingly, in his subsequent chat, Huckaby denies that Cust's performance last year was really all that surprising, saying "And did Cust *really* exceed reasonable expectations by all that much? I don't think so." Um, well, I can't say I remember exactly what people's expectations were, but I am pretty damn sure they were a hell of a lot lower. Look at it this way: Cust's Equivalent Average--one of BP's stats for evaluating general offensive perfomance--was seventh in the American League, just behind Jim Thome and ahead of Vlad Guerrero (Thome and Guerrero have better slash stats on the surface, but they both played in much better hitters parks than Cust). Guerrero and Thome, in case any one forgot, are Hall of Fame calibre hitters who had terrific years. Does anyone think that, if the expectations were that Cust would be anywhere close to that level, he would have begun the year rotting in AAA? Don't you think that the Padres--who are, I might add, one of the more sabermetrically astute franchises in baseball--would have promoted him if they thought he would be a better hitter than Vlad fucking god damn Guerrero? Hell, there is no way Billy Beane thought he was going be that good; if he did, why did he bother signing a 38 year old Mike Piazza in the off-season for vastly more money than Cust would receive despite the fact that Piazza hasn't been the hitter Cust was this year since 2002?

Cust was a desperation move on Beane's part that payed off big time. One could argue, of course, that Cust's stellar minor league numbers merited some team giving him a major league shot. But suggesting that Beane thought he was going to receive the quality of production that Cust offered--and, implicitly, that there are numerous minor leaguers out there who could provide something comparable to Cust's 2007 performance--is batshit insane.

That was way too much time to make a really obvious point.

Before You Attack Me, Know That Jesus Told Me To Post This

2007-12-15T21:40:00.001-05:00

Excessive Google searches capped by bold inferences indicate that it's been an offseason of change for Big Papi. David Ortiz is now white, balding, a tremendous fan of Jesus Christ, and a deliciously awkward writer.

About David Ortiz Ministries: " . . . In conclusion, having traveled throughout Europe, the Middle East, the Caribbean, the Continental United States and Latin America, David Ortiz is, without doubt, one of our most cherished, talented and theologically prepared Hispanic assets."

As the Red Sox slugger embarks on his new journey, Primarily Baseball extends its best wishes to David and his familial assets.

Condemning human nature

2007-12-14T19:37:00.000-05:00

It doesn't make much sense to condemn human nature. It is, at least, unconstructive. But it is what some critics of steroid use in baseball are doing.

From the Mitchell Report, we know, broadly, what we already knew and what perspicacious observers foresaw all along. In a competitive sport in which super-excellence was rewarded with enormous money and fame and in which there was almost no enforcement of a legal and baseball-wide ban on a means of improving performance, a good number of players used the nominally forbidden means.

Some of the alleged users were superstars pursuing an even greater greatness. Others were replacement-level players struggling to stay in the major leagues. Many players, probably a substantial majority, did not use steroids.

Baseball's steroid scandal simply affirms the premise of the American government's design. Most people aren't angels. They tend to pursue their own interests. But they're not generally evil, either. By aligning the self-interests they will perceive with the collective interests of society, institutions--constraints a group of people imposes on its members--may curb undesirable behavior and allow individuals to interact on fair terms.

Major League Baseball and law enforcement should enforce their policies forbidding the use of steroids and other harmful performance-enhancing substances. Those policies are, in my view, justified. The players and their union deserve blame for long opposing testing. If players thought it was right to juice up, the more honest position would have been to advocate overturning baseball's and legislators' ban on steroids--a position, of course, that would have been untenable. And the individual players who used steroids and other banned drugs deserve moral blame. After all, most of their peers, facing the same pressures, probably stayed clean.

While deserving our blame, the cheaters also deserve our empathy. When cheating seemed likely to bring large rewards at little cost, many people cheated. We shouldn't be shocked. We shouldn't even be surprised.

Red Sox to be undefeated in 2008

2007-12-08T17:02:00.000-05:00

Eric Gagne has declined the Red Sox arbitration offer. He is rumored to be in discussions with the Brewers, which is not the Red Sox. If the Brewers don't sign him, he is rumored to be likely to sign with one of 28 teams, none of which is the Red Sox.

In other words, the Red Sox have gained more than in any possible deal for Johan Santana.

(Also noteworthy is the way MLB.com lends credibility to the Gagne-to-Brewers rumors: by citing "multiple Internet reports." Perhaps those reports are credible, but on its face, that's about as high a standard as "according to a thought that occurred to me while I was talking a shit.")

Fucking Will Carroll

2007-12-05T19:07:00.000-05:00

Fucking Will Carroll.

On Tuesday he reported: "Johan Santana to the Red Sox is all but done. Jon Lester, a center fielder, Justin Masterson and Ryan Kalish are the package. More details now."

1. A center fielder? You tricky bitch. Is it Crisp or Ellsbury? Do you know or not know? Use parallel structure or explain the deviation, motherfucker.

2. "More details now" is already wrong the moment anyone reads it.

3. And Carroll's next post didn't come until Wednesday, when he reported that medical issues were holding up the deal. Cancer, Carroll speculated in a sentence reeking of bullshit, was "not likely the issue here; the Sox, with their connections to The Jimmy Fund, have access to some of the best oncologists in the world." Will Carroll did not elaborate on when he became Baseball Prospectus writer by day and Jon Lester's doctor by night, along with when the cure for cancer was developed but kept secret to everyone but Jimmy Fund-affiliated doctors, the Red Sox, Jon Lester, and Will Carroll.

So, no Santana yet, but sports reporters enjoy the power trip.

The Worst Thing Ever Written, Ever

2007-11-19T16:39:00.000-05:00

From--you guessed it--Curt Schilling's 38pitches.com:

In 1997 when I gave my life to Christ a pretty cool thing happened. I lost the ability to hate anything or anyone. I’ve gotten mad, said stupid and bad things, but I truly don’t hate anyone or anything. Hating takes way too much energy and effort. There’s way too much to do and experience in life to waste time hating so I just don’t.

I could have put the quote in context, but that wouldn't have made it any less fucking god damn awful.

Surprising / Not Surprising

2007-11-11T14:21:00.002-05:00

Today's Surprising / Not Surprising derives from the Boston Globe.

Surprising:

Pedroia led the league [in 2007] in something called BPS on OutZ, which translates to batting average plus slugging percentage on pitches outside the strike zone. Pedroia was listed at .664, just ahead of notorious bad-ball hitter Vladi Guerrero of the Angels (.662). Ramirez was second-worst in the league in the same category at .189.

The minuscule Pedroia hits outside pitches even better than Vlad? Surprising. Manny, one of the best hitters to play the game, and whom my eyes seem to remember landing a lot of hits on bad pitches, was awful outside the strike zone? Double surprising.

Not surprising:

Pedroia also had the second-lowest strikeout-per-plate-appearance average (.072), a category in which Varitek ranked fifth-highest (.236).

Tek strikes out more than Manny trying to pick up women outside a Greenpeace convention. Definitely not surprising.

You Don't Say

2007-11-09T21:48:00.000-05:00

Amidst the hoopla over the new Tampa Bay uniforms, Rays adviser and crime dog Fred McGriff pointed out the obvious:

"I think these are great for a change, but the players still have to go out and play the game."

Clearly, McGriff overlooked that the new unis will bring enduring and all-powerful Momentum.

Schilling Says Goodbye

2007-11-04T13:18:00.000-05:00

Wonder how those Curt Schilling “goodbye” letters to all his teammates read? Primarily Baseball doesn’t, because it has falsified one. Let’s have a look:

Dear Hidecki Okijima,

I wanted to take this opportunity to say what I fear might be goodbye. Me and my wife Shonda have had a marvelous time playing for the Boston Red Sox, and getting to know you in particular. As I face the prospect of free agency, I wanted to send our regards, and possible heartfelt goodbye, to both you and Mrs. Matsuzaka.

Hidiki, remember all the glories we shared together? I remember coaching you, in spring training, to throw on the corners rather than down the middle. That greatness continued right up to the World Series, where I dubbed your and Papelbon’s combined shutdown relief of my strong outing as the “Papijima” or “Okibon” show! I combined your last names!

Times like those will forever live in the heart of me and my wife Shonda, and our several kids. They sometimes make me forget that you ever bombed Pearl Harbor. Personally, I think people should let the past be the past.

I’ll be sure to give you a ring if I am ever in China. That said, I hope this is not goodbye. Daisuke, if my hopes come true, I will look forward to being your teammate, friend, and mentor next year again.

Warmest regards,
Curt & Shonda Schilling

The Mud Hens Strike Back

2007-11-01T23:34:00.000-04:00

If only Sterling and Waldman could opt-out of their contracts. Or lives. Whatever relieves my ears of their daily impression, What An Orgasm Stretched Out Over Three Hours And Rendered As Baseball Announcing Sounds Like.

Point is, the opt-out is my new favorite tool. Through it, A-Rod has managed to unite Sox fans and Yankees fans in hatred of himself. And anyone but Scott Boras should find this stunt pretty awesome.

TekWatch: Tek Cleans

2007-10-31T20:45:00.000-04:00

Tek finally shows his true worth: as a cleaner of lockers, not to mention a wearer of sweaters that are wrong at any price.

Maybe that's why teammates love him. I'd have no problem telling others about the preternatural pitch-calling ability, or really whatever, of anyone who cleaned up my shit every day.

Actually, I would pay her slightly below minimum wage and ignore her lack of green card until she stole something I cared about. But still.

Christ Opts Out

2007-10-30T09:29:00.000-04:00

After propelling the Colorado Rockies to late-season success that fell short of a World Series championship, Jesus Christ left the Rockies this afternoon.

Repeated Christ: "I died for their sins, and they can't win me one World Series fucking ballgame?"

Christ reserved his harshest criticism for manager Clint Hurdle. Hurdle, Christ said, "lacks zeal."

"Clint Hurdle is lucky he's in fucking baseball," said Christ.

Though primarily irate, Christ sprinkled in jokes and self-critique, noting that "this is what I get" for pinning hopes on "some cocksucker named Troy Tulowitzki."

Following in the footsteps of Alex Rodriguez, Christ will opt-out of his contract with the Rockies, meaning he is now a free agent. Scott Boras, Jesus' agent, expects the savior to garner a lucrative contract. But Christ himself declined to discuss his future, simply repeating that he was sure Tulowitzki is homosexual.

Jesus

2007-10-28T02:56:00.000-04:00

It has become apparent that Jesus Christ himself wants the prayer-happy Rockies to lose the World Series in four games to the infidel Red Sox.

Sound retarded? You bet your ass.

I quote the "logic":

What an amazing witness for the transformative power of Jesus would it be if the Rockies doused the Sox in champagne and celebrated their victory and praised God all the time. That would make people wonder about Jesus.

In fact, when the Rockies lose in four games, no one will give a shit whether the Rockies applaud or sacrifice their first-born. Still, I vote for the latter.

TekWatch: Profiling Tek, Working Class Hero

2007-10-26T11:41:00.000-04:00

It didn’t take long this postseason for the Tek Kool-Aid to look good and sugary. Let’s get to it.

Heart of the Order: Jason Varitek

Careful readers always check MLB.com’s ample footnotes; the one here clarifies that “heart of the order” means below the heart of the order, near the tubes that discharge excrement like Julio Lugo.

When you mention the word "leader" in baseball circles, the image of Jason Varitek probably comes to mind first in the minds of many.

If you mean the many who think first of the bottom of the leader list, then float up to the middle, and back down, then yes, Jason Varitek pops to fucking mind.

Since [Varitek became starting catcher in 1999], the Red Sox are 14-3 in potential elimination games, and it isn't a reach to point to Varitek's leadership and refusal to panic as a reason for that impressive mark.

It isn’t a reach if you’re listing every possible factor. Then again, it isn’t a reach to think that the Sox might be 15-2, 16-1, or 17-0 if they had a catcher who could hit the ball really well.

High school and college students probably don't use as many loose-leaf binders as Varitek, who is a picture in preparation. Varitek doesn't just study scouting reports -- he breaks them down and dissects them.

This is the most compelling evidence I’ve seen. Let’s see if there’s any evidence that this preparation makes a significant difference in Red Sox pitching performances.

When Josh Beckett arrived at Spring Training this season, coming off a disappointing 2006, he was asked if there was a lesson he learned that he could convey to the newcomer of this year, Daisuke Mastuzaka. "If I could tell Matsuzaka anything, it would be, 'Trust 'Tek’”….All that trust later, Beckett had a dominant regular season, winning 20 games, and his brilliant postseason work has fueled the Red Sox to the World Series. It further exemplifies the type of things that can happen when pitchers put their faith in their so-called "guide."

After all those binders, Varitek realized in 2007 that Josh Beckett should once in a while throw one of those shit-kicking curveballs he, you know, has in his arsenal of pitches. Tek’s a little slow, but so methodical. Or maybe Beckett did not throw any curves in 2006 because of blisters on his hand! Which factor could matter more?

Excuse me. I’m having a sargasm. I just can’t get over the dominance of Jason Varitek, Working Class Hero. When you work hard and don’t shave, nothing can stand in your way. Someday you, too, boys and girls, by the grace of the mediocrity God gave you, can get credit for things that are mostly the doing of others.

Along with wife Karen, Varitek has become a fixture in community endeavors. This season, he hosted the second annual Jason Varitek Celebrity Putt-Putt Tournament, with proceeds going to Boston Children's Hospital.

If it’s the Jason Varitek Celebrity Putt-Putt Tournament, who are the celebrities? The guy who used to buff the floor of the Boston Garden before Celtics games?

Seriously, Tek's smart. It’s hard to swing and miss in putt-putt.

For the last four years, Varitek has run a "Tek's 33" program, in which kids from Children's Hospital come to Fenway Park and meet Varitek, while enjoying batting practice and watching a game.

Our Working Class Hero is also a Pretty Nice Guy. I just hope the kids get to see Manny Ramirez so they don’t leave disappointed.

Irony Alert

2007-10-24T23:25:00.000-04:00

A-Rod named the clutchiest player?

But I thought in clutch situations A-Rod curled up into a multi-million-dollar ball that only Derek Jeter's gentle massaging could decongeal.

I suppose it's fitting: not only is this a fake, Pepsi-sponsored, fan-voted award, but the value the award honors, clutchitudeness, is pretty bogus too.

Problem with Karma

2007-10-24T12:04:00.000-04:00

If the Rockies win the series, it will of course be because they are the team of destiny, and their incredible hotness carried them past a clearly superior team. If they lose, it will of course be because their long lay-off sapped them of their momentum.

What I can guarantee you will not see is claims of the form "the Rockies maintained their momentum and great play, but unfortunately ran into a better team whose superior execution outweighed the Rockies momentum" or "The Rockies lost their momentum and played quite poorly, but luckily for them the meltdowns of Daisuke Matsuzaka and Jon Lester, and the subpar performance of Curt Schilling allowed them to sneak by and claim the crown." That is because, of course, there is no way judging karmic forces except by results; if they were real, than the last two scenarios would certainly be possible, and not even that implausible. Karma is a massive bullshit dump for sportswriters to anoint heroes and villains and for athletes to make people think they are better people than the rest of us.

Personally, I am just looking forward to the best teams of their respective leagues meeting tonight. No magic necessary.

Fucking Tool

2007-10-23T22:43:00.000-04:00

What a clown.

Introducing TekWatch

2007-10-22T18:57:00.000-04:00

This is the first in a series of TekWatch posts, which point out the many manifestations of Jason Varitek's overratedness.

"Tek" is the Red Sox catcher. By objective standards, Tek is mediocre to mediocre-good: his on-base percentage is a barely above average .350, his slugging has fallen to the low .400s, his arm is nothing special, and he strikes out as often as Tom Brady gets laid, which, obviously, is all the fucking time. He can't even catch Tim Wakefield's knuckleball, or refuses to, and certainly refuses to learn. This forces the Sox to retain Doug Mirabelli, who makes Varitek look like Jesus Christ himself has squatted down to catch the baseball.

But screw objective standards. Tek is beloved. Why? I put this question to Red Sox fans, even before they got plastered for the night/afternoon. They invariably gave one of two responses:

1. He is the team "captain." Why, you can see it right there on his uniform, marked by a gigantic "C"! That must mean something?!

It means he's got "C" on his uniform where a blank space ought to be.

2. He is a great pitch caller. No one calls pitches like Tek.

Isn't the pitcher mostly in charge of pitching? I've never heard of any other catcher being assessed primarily by his ability or inability to call pitches. Maybe Varitek does call pitches well, but who the hell knows? And if he's got such a great sense for fooling batters, why does he strike out as often as high school girls used to reject Dustin Pedroia?

With that preamble, I present the inaugural TekWatch. Like so many things dumb, today's TekWatch quote is brought to us by MLB.com:

So what changed that put Boston over the top this year?
One difference was that Boston's starting rotation had three pitchers with at least 15 wins this year and the club's bullpen was the best in the league. . . .The Red Sox also avoided major injuries this year, unlike last year when they lost captain Jason Varitek to knee surgery in August and had a bunch of other core players out at the same time.

Those unnamed "other core players" include Manny Ramirez. Manny Fucking God Damn Ramirez. One of the top players of all time. Wikipedia notes that Ramirez missed 28 games starting in August. Sounds close, and if I trusted Wikipedia for my college thesis, I'm trusting Wikipedia for this.

Manny FGD Ramirez is an "other core player" compared to Jason Varitek. That's like saying the war in Iraq was launched by Poland and some other core nations.

____________________

* Update in response to reader comments:

Thanks for the kind comments. I am intrigued by the idea that people who dislike my criticism of Varitek also want me to spell his name right as I criticize him. So I've made the correction.

Let me note, in all seriousness, that Varitek, while not a great catcher, is a good one. He ranked fifth among major league catchers in VORP this year, clocking in at 23.4. I'm skeptical that his supposed "pitch calling" ability makes much of a difference, I'm highly skeptical that 99% of the people who laud Tek's pitch calling ability are in a position to know anything about the subject, and I'd love to hear evidence in support of Tek's pitch calling making a difference, but unless his pitch calling shaves a half-run off every pitcher's ERA, my point stands. Tek's reputation outstrips his ability. Given all the great players on the Red Sox, Tek t-shirts are way too popular, and Manny Ramirez shirts, for starters, too rare. The upshot is some funny remarks that make out Varitek to be the star of the Sox. These remarks TekWatch will expose and mock, invoking profanity in excess. Onward!

Earl Weaver, God

2007-10-21T18:23:00.000-04:00

This is so great, it deserves its own post.

Ump: "You are a liar, Earl!"
Earl: "You are!"
Ump: "A liar!"
Earl: "You are! You are!"

My only worry is that "God" doesn't go far enough.

PS: And this one. It may be even better. By gosh, it is. Earl Weaver: Much, Much Better than God.

PPS: It's not even fucking close.

Why I (Still) Hate J.D. Drew

2007-10-21T12:17:00.000-04:00

Will Leitch argues that fans hate J.D. Drew because he seems indifferent. Leitch (over)writes, "More than being money-hungry, more than being loud and obnoxious, more than being a felonious boor, the one athletic transgression we cannot forgive is indifference."

Actually, Boston fans hate J.D. Drew because he hasn't been very good. He's been average, for an unaverage salary of $70 million. An apparent attitude of indifference may be icing on the cake, but I promise, had he hit .323 and slugged .613--as he did in 2001--Boston fans would overlook his failure to slam his helmet and curse god whenever he makes an out.

His five-RBI game six notwithstanding, J.D. Drew has hit pretty damn lamely this year. That's why he'll always be "Nancy" to me--until he performs better.

More broadly, I'm sick of hearing about the supposed power of cosmic and karmic forces in baseball. The Red Sox "lack energy;" the Red Sox "have energy." The Indians had mountains of "momentum" after three straight wins--which somehow the Red Sox overcame. Probably because the Sox are so "confident" and have "been there before." Fox's broadcasters spent much of game five of the ALCS alternately delivering paeans to "postseason experience" and pining for not-even-rookie Jacoby Ellsbury to start game six in center field.

Attitude doesn't matter nearly as much as conventional wisdom thinks it does, and fans don't care nearly as much about it as conventional wisdom thinks they do. If attitude were the only thing discernible about baseball, it might warrant substantial discussion. But that is so far from the case. Baseball is fascinating game, rich in statistics that yield objective information about player talent. Attitude, I grant you, may be the only thing discernible about baseball to blowhards and idiots. The least they could do is shut up, or not be hired.

Two Birds

2007-10-20T14:03:00.000-04:00

I know, I know, I shouldn't let this site degenerate into a sort of FJM-lite, mainly because there is no way we could do it as well as them. Still, there is some stuff that is just so stupid I can't help saying something. Take, for instance, this piece, written by a senior national columnist at the self-proclaimed World Leader of Sports. There is so much good stuff in there that it really deserves a line-by-line takedown, but I'm just going to focus on my favourite part: Gene suggests that a one year deal worth $2M for Barry Bonds would not be an insult.

Gene might have had a point--if he had been writing in 1987. In 2007, baseball players tend to earn just a little more money. To take the most recent of literrally dozens of possible examples, Joel Pineiro just signed a two year deal for $13M. Joel Pineiro. The man has been a well below average pitcher for the last four years. He is now a middle reliever. Thirteen million dollars. And Gene thinks, in this sort of market, $2M for BARRRY FUCKING BONDS is not an insult?

Maybe senior is a polite way of saying senile.

When I logged on to write this post, I noticed this by Ken Rosenthal, who is quickly removing himself from my short list of mainstream sports writers with more than 2 brain cells. Like judging a book by its cover, this article's stupidity can be fully surmized by the opening sentence. It is akin to writing "Tom Brady is a great quaterback. He is not a great football player" or "Roger Federer is a great server, volleyer, forehand hitter and backhand hitter. He is not a great tennis player."

Twerp

2007-10-18T09:33:00.000-04:00

In game 4 two nights ago, Dustin Pedroia took what I thought was an extremely awkward slide into first attempting to avoid a tag from Victor Martinez on a routine ground ball to first; he sort of fell down head first into the ball. This is one of the few occasions where a player actually should slide into first, but I remember wondering why he didn't go in feet first. It appears, in retrospect, that he was doing an imitation of Boston's favorite role model.

Say What?

2007-10-16T09:06:00.000-04:00

Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports is generally one of the less terrible members of the mainstream sports media, and often has inside information that is quite interesting. He is, though, capable of some real doozies. A few days ago, he published this. Yesterday, he decided to pull a 180 and write this. Personally, I would probably send Beckett out on short rest; even though the Rockies are hot, and even if Beckett is tired, the Sox would still be the strong favorites in the world series; thus, they should play this series as if it were the world series. I also think, however, that pitch counts and the "babying" of pitchers has been a great development for baseball in general. Look how many great pitchers are pitching well into their forties these days; is it really better to have this kind of thing happen?

Schilling's number

2007-10-14T02:37:00.000-04:00

Do the Indians have Curt Schilling's number? After the game, Schilling said:

The home run that Jhonny [Peralta] hit is going to be the one that I'll wonder about forever, simply because based on what -- our history, what we did to them yesterday, what we did to them the first at bat, I went to the pitch I wanted to go to, I threw the pitch I wanted to throw and I hit my spot, and he hit a home run. I'm not used to that one. He put a great swing on a pitch I thought was the right pitch; obviously it wasn't....But it was a game, had I executed, we should have won.

In other words:

1. I executed, but the Indians still hit me; and
2. I didn't execute, so the Indians hit me.

Perhaps point 1. was hard to admit without qualification. Schilling seemed to pitch game two of the ALCS as desired. His control was on, his change looked good, his splitter came around by the third inning or so. He looked as good as he did against the Angels--except that the Indians can actually hit.

The home run pitch to Peralta was just the pitch Schilling intended to throw. That's equally true, it appears, of the home run pitch to Grady Sizemore. Schilling's 88 mph deliveries are to fastballs what David Ortiz is to baserunning: heading in the right place, but pretty fucking slow. Schilling simply might not have the stuff anymore to keep great lineups at bay.

All this means gives reason to feel very uneasy about Schilling's next start against Cleveland. Schilling is likely to pitch no better than he pitched in game two--and that's if he's on his game.

Reactions to Red Sox 4, Angels 0

2007-10-03T23:49:00.001-04:00

1. Dominant. That was a classic '07 Red Sox game: great pitching, great defense, and solid, smart hitting.

2. Francona is pissing me off, after choosing the disadvantageous eight-day series and starting Dice-K second instead of Schilling. No way Beckett should have started the ninth. Maybe Beckett demanded it, but a manager's supposed to be able to tell his players to yield when the team's best interest demands. The Sox are hugely rested and off tomorrow; Beckett had no business starting the ninth after having thrown 101 pitches through eight. In fact, this was a good place to try out Okajima to see if he's still got his stuff. We'll see if Francona's folly costs the Sox (and Beckett's ERA) some runs Thursday. Perhaps Francona wanted a super-rested bullpen in case Dice-K stinks in game two.

3. To what extent was Ortiz's home run hit off a bad pitch and to what extent was it great hitting by Ortiz? Obviously the curve stayed too high, but it did seem to have a lot of movement. I suspect most hitters would have swung and missed, but I'm not sure.

4. To me the best hit ball wasn't Youkilis's or Ortiz's homer but Mike Lowell's RBI single. He extended to smack the low-and-away pitch--probably the hardest pitch to hit--into center field, slightly left of dead center at that. I imagine that takes some strength, and I only imagine because clearly it's strength I don't have.

PLUS:

The Angels are starting Joe Saunders over John Lackey in Game 4? That's according to the Angels' website. I assume they seek to avoid Escobar being overworked or injured and would start Lackey in game 5. But they really have no margin for error against a Sox team that is slightly, but clearly, better in every category (offense, fielding, starting pitching, bullpen pitching). Saunders pitched splendidly against the Sox this year, but the Angels ought to prefer starting Escobar or Lackey over Saunders for the purpose of winning the series, unless Escobar's health is extremely bad (yet somehow not so bad to start game 2).

Goddamn, Fire Joe Morgan's JoeChat is hilarious today. I know Joe Morgan is dumb, but the depth and myriad applications of his stupidity never cease to amaze and confound. It's beautiful, really. I'm choking up just thinking that someday Joe will pass on or, becoming recognized as senile, be taken off the air.

Ponderable

2007-10-01T09:30:00.001-04:00

If Manny Ramirez committed a felony, might a judge acquit him on grounds that it was "just Manny being Manny"?

Tiebreaker

2007-10-01T09:12:00.000-04:00

There's something about a one-game tiebreaker. It may be the most intense game there is--even more than the final game of a playoff series. The World Series too. There, at least the losing team doesn't go home empty handed: they are champions of their league (which in the American League means something). Today, the Padres or Rockies are playing one single game--a completely inadequate metric--to decide who gets a mere shot at the playoffs and who goes home with no titles to show for the season. Only in a one-game tiebreaker, everything a team has worked for over 162 games is on the line. Too bad for the Rockies they're facing Jake Peavy.

Anyone

2007-09-30T11:11:00.000-04:00

who is not following the National League today does not like baseball. Personally, I'm rooting for the Phillies and Rockies, but really a four way tie would be the best.

If Sterling and Waldman were Sox announcers (god forbid)

2007-09-28T23:08:00.000-04:00

Sterling: The Reeddd Sooxxxxxxx Wiin! Thhheeeeeeeeee Reedd Sooxxx Wiinnnnnn! The Red Sox are division champs!

Waldman: [orgasms, dies, keeps screaming]

Crazy

2007-09-28T15:57:00.000-04:00

A lot of people complain about the competitive balance of baseball, and the fact that the same teams seem to make the playoffs every year. If, out of the current five team scramble for three playoff spots in the NL the Rockies, Phillies, and Diamondbacks prove victorious--and that is certainly a distinct possibility--then there will only be ONE team that made the playoffs this year that also made them last year. That is an insane degree of turnover.

Please, no

2007-09-25T11:07:00.001-04:00

From mlb.com:

If Clemens is unable to pitch, Matt DeSalvo or Kei Igawa could fill in.

The quotable Griffey

2007-09-24T23:32:00.000-04:00

Ken Griffey Jr. on his injury:

"The best way I can describe it is it felt like somebody bungee-jumped off my right nut" (Cincinnati Post).

Liveblogging the Yanks game

2007-09-24T13:29:00.001-04:00

The Yankees are playing a day game against the Jays, meaning we'll be at work, meaning we can devote our full attention to baseball.

Jack, 1:33 pm: 3-0 Jays! But the joy of the Jays lead is nearly erased by the fact that Susan Waldman, cunt extraordinaire, is back on the radio. I mean "cunt extraordinaire" in a descriptive sense. She must have an extraordinary cunt to have so many shrieking orgasms every time any Yankee does anything good.